India Meteorological Department forecasts indicate a maximum temperature of 42°C for Lucknow on April 19 under clear skies, aligning with trader consensus at 59% implied probability and driving the market's positioning. This follows a rebound from unseasonal rains earlier in April that temporarily dropped minimums to 17°C, with yesterday's observed high of 41°C amid dry conditions and regional heatwave declarations in Uttar Pradesh. Persistent subsidence, low humidity, and maximum solar insolation during pre-monsoon late April—when climatological highs average around 40°C but often exceed in heatwaves—support 42°C as the leading outcome, while 43°C at 28% reflects potential for slight model upside. Updated IMD guidance expected later today could refine probabilities ahead of resolution via airport station data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Lucknow on April 19?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on April 19?
42°C 59%
43°C 31%
41°C 13%
44°C 2.3%
$19,521 Vol.
$19,521 Vol.
40°C or below
1%
41°C
13%
42°C
59%
43°C
31%
44°C
2%
45°C
1%
46°C
<1%
47°C
<1%
48°C
<1%
49°C
<1%
50°C or higher
<1%
42°C 59%
43°C 31%
41°C 13%
44°C 2.3%
$19,521 Vol.
$19,521 Vol.
40°C or below
1%
41°C
13%
42°C
59%
43°C
31%
44°C
2%
45°C
1%
46°C
<1%
47°C
<1%
48°C
<1%
49°C
<1%
50°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 17, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...India Meteorological Department forecasts indicate a maximum temperature of 42°C for Lucknow on April 19 under clear skies, aligning with trader consensus at 59% implied probability and driving the market's positioning. This follows a rebound from unseasonal rains earlier in April that temporarily dropped minimums to 17°C, with yesterday's observed high of 41°C amid dry conditions and regional heatwave declarations in Uttar Pradesh. Persistent subsidence, low humidity, and maximum solar insolation during pre-monsoon late April—when climatological highs average around 40°C but often exceed in heatwaves—support 42°C as the leading outcome, while 43°C at 28% reflects potential for slight model upside. Updated IMD guidance expected later today could refine probabilities ahead of resolution via airport station data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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