Official observations from Spain's Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) confirm Madrid's highest temperature on April 29 reached exactly 24°C at key stations like Barajas Airport and Retiro Park, solidifying trader consensus at 100% implied probability for that outcome as final data was reported overnight. This aligns with late-April climatological norms for Madrid, where average highs hover around 20–22°C amid mild spring conditions and no unusual heat drivers like föhn winds or heat domes. Model forecasts from ECMWF and GFS had anticipated a cap near 24°C due to stable upper-level troughing inhibiting further warming. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty include a rare post hoc data revision from AEMET—such as sensor recalibration—but historical precedent shows such adjustments affect less than 0.1% of daily records, with no indications of discrepancies in preliminary bulletins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on April 29?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 29?
24°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$345,275 Vol.
$345,275 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
Yes
25°C or higher
No
24°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$345,275 Vol.
$345,275 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
15°C or below
$1,449 Vol.
No
16°C
$1,764 Vol.
No
17°C
$6,357 Vol.
No
18°C
$10,650 Vol.
No
19°C
$30,261 Vol.
No
20°C
$23,299 Vol.
No
21°C
$52,659 Vol.
No
22°C
$41,340 Vol.
No
23°C
$74,438 Vol.
No
24°C
$33,413 Vol.
Yes
25°C or higher
$69,645 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from Spain's Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) confirm Madrid's highest temperature on April 29 reached exactly 24°C at key stations like Barajas Airport and Retiro Park, solidifying trader consensus at 100% implied probability for that outcome as final data was reported overnight. This aligns with late-April climatological norms for Madrid, where average highs hover around 20–22°C amid mild spring conditions and no unusual heat drivers like föhn winds or heat domes. Model forecasts from ECMWF and GFS had anticipated a cap near 24°C due to stable upper-level troughing inhibiting further warming. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty include a rare post hoc data revision from AEMET—such as sensor recalibration—but historical precedent shows such adjustments affect less than 0.1% of daily records, with no indications of discrepancies in preliminary bulletins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 27, 2026, 12:45 AM ET
Volume
$345,275End Date
Apr 29, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 12:45 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from Spain's Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) confirm Madrid's highest temperature on April 29 reached exactly 24°C at key stations like Barajas Airport and Retiro Park, solidifying trader consensus at 100% implied probability for that outcome as final data was reported overnight. This aligns with late-April climatological norms for Madrid, where average highs hover around 20–22°C amid mild spring conditions and no unusual heat drivers like föhn winds or heat domes. Model forecasts from ECMWF and GFS had anticipated a cap near 24°C due to stable upper-level troughing inhibiting further warming. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty include a rare post hoc data revision from AEMET—such as sensor recalibration—but historical precedent shows such adjustments affect less than 0.1% of daily records, with no indications of discrepancies in preliminary bulletins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$345,275End Date
Apr 29, 2026Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 12:45 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official observations from Spain's Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) confirm Madrid's highest temperature on April 29 reached exactly 24°C at key stations like Barajas Airport and Retiro Park, solidifying trader consensus at 100% implied probability for that outcome as final data was reported overnight. This aligns with late-April climatological norms for Madrid, where average highs hover around 20–22°C amid mild spring conditions and no unusual heat drivers like föhn winds or heat domes. Model forecasts from ECMWF and GFS had anticipated a cap near 24°C due to stable upper-level troughing inhibiting further warming. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty include a rare post hoc data revision from AEMET—such as sensor recalibration—but historical precedent shows such adjustments affect less than 0.1% of daily records, with no indications of discrepancies in preliminary bulletins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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