Official observations from Moscow's primary meteorological stations, including Vnukovo Airport and central Balchug, confirm the highest temperature reached 24°C on May 5, 2026, driving trader consensus to near-certainty at 100% implied probability. This peak occurred midday amid southwesterly winds and initial clear skies, but incoming thunderstorms and increased cloud cover—forecast by Rosgidromet and ECMWF models—capped further warming despite pre-dawn projections up to 26°C. The reading marks the warmest day of 2026 so far, exceeding the early May climatological norm of 17°C by 7°C, with a record-warm overnight low of +14°C. Scenarios challenging this include rare post-day data revisions from secondary stations, though official reports rarely shift after initial tallies. Final Rosgidromet summary expected within 24 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on May 5?
Highest temperature in Moscow on May 5?
24°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$82,511 Vol.
$82,511 Vol.
May 5, 2026
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
Yes
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
24°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$82,511 Vol.
$82,511 Vol.
May 5, 2026
19°C or below
$2,461 Vol.
No
20°C
$1,954 Vol.
No
21°C
$2,619 Vol.
No
22°C
$2,847 Vol.
No
23°C
$9,055 Vol.
No
24°C
$10,634 Vol.
Yes
25°C
$13,270 Vol.
No
26°C
$11,673 Vol.
No
27°C
$9,112 Vol.
No
28°C
$7,190 Vol.
No
29°C or higher
$11,696 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from Moscow's primary meteorological stations, including Vnukovo Airport and central Balchug, confirm the highest temperature reached 24°C on May 5, 2026, driving trader consensus to near-certainty at 100% implied probability. This peak occurred midday amid southwesterly winds and initial clear skies, but incoming thunderstorms and increased cloud cover—forecast by Rosgidromet and ECMWF models—capped further warming despite pre-dawn projections up to 26°C. The reading marks the warmest day of 2026 so far, exceeding the early May climatological norm of 17°C by 7°C, with a record-warm overnight low of +14°C. Scenarios challenging this include rare post-day data revisions from secondary stations, though official reports rarely shift after initial tallies. Final Rosgidromet summary expected within 24 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 3, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$82,511End Date
May 5, 2026Market Opened
May 3, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from Moscow's primary meteorological stations, including Vnukovo Airport and central Balchug, confirm the highest temperature reached 24°C on May 5, 2026, driving trader consensus to near-certainty at 100% implied probability. This peak occurred midday amid southwesterly winds and initial clear skies, but incoming thunderstorms and increased cloud cover—forecast by Rosgidromet and ECMWF models—capped further warming despite pre-dawn projections up to 26°C. The reading marks the warmest day of 2026 so far, exceeding the early May climatological norm of 17°C by 7°C, with a record-warm overnight low of +14°C. Scenarios challenging this include rare post-day data revisions from secondary stations, though official reports rarely shift after initial tallies. Final Rosgidromet summary expected within 24 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$82,511End Date
May 5, 2026Market Opened
May 3, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official observations from Moscow's primary meteorological stations, including Vnukovo Airport and central Balchug, confirm the highest temperature reached 24°C on May 5, 2026, driving trader consensus to near-certainty at 100% implied probability. This peak occurred midday amid southwesterly winds and initial clear skies, but incoming thunderstorms and increased cloud cover—forecast by Rosgidromet and ECMWF models—capped further warming despite pre-dawn projections up to 26°C. The reading marks the warmest day of 2026 so far, exceeding the early May climatological norm of 17°C by 7°C, with a record-warm overnight low of +14°C. Scenarios challenging this include rare post-day data revisions from secondary stations, though official reports rarely shift after initial tallies. Final Rosgidromet summary expected within 24 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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