National Weather Service forecast models have consistently projected a daily high of 66–67°F in New York City on May 21, following a brief heat wave with highs in the 90s on May 18–20. Stable high-pressure systems and limited moisture advection suppressed warming, producing cooler northerly flow and clear skies that aligned with climatological norms for late May. This strong model consensus, backed by multiple runs and surface observations, drove trader sentiment toward the 66–67°F outcome at near-100% implied probability. Unexpected shifts in steering patterns or delayed frontal passage could have allowed modest warming above 68°F, though current data show low likelihood of such revisions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on May 21?
Highest temperature in NYC on May 21?
66-67°F 100.0%
59°F or below <1%
60-61°F <1%
62-63°F <1%
$109,615 Vol.
$109,615 Vol.
May 21, 2026
59°F or below
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
Yes
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78°F or higher
No
66-67°F 100.0%
59°F or below <1%
60-61°F <1%
62-63°F <1%
$109,615 Vol.
$109,615 Vol.
May 21, 2026
59°F or below
$26,558 Vol.
No
60-61°F
$3,522 Vol.
No
62-63°F
$5,550 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$4,690 Vol.
No
66-67°F
$22,779 Vol.
Yes
68-69°F
$14,264 Vol.
No
70-71°F
$10,631 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$5,708 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$4,131 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$7,307 Vol.
No
78°F or higher
$4,474 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecast models have consistently projected a daily high of 66–67°F in New York City on May 21, following a brief heat wave with highs in the 90s on May 18–20. Stable high-pressure systems and limited moisture advection suppressed warming, producing cooler northerly flow and clear skies that aligned with climatological norms for late May. This strong model consensus, backed by multiple runs and surface observations, drove trader sentiment toward the 66–67°F outcome at near-100% implied probability. Unexpected shifts in steering patterns or delayed frontal passage could have allowed modest warming above 68°F, though current data show low likelihood of such revisions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 19, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$109,615End Date
May 21, 2026Market Opened
May 19, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecast models have consistently projected a daily high of 66–67°F in New York City on May 21, following a brief heat wave with highs in the 90s on May 18–20. Stable high-pressure systems and limited moisture advection suppressed warming, producing cooler northerly flow and clear skies that aligned with climatological norms for late May. This strong model consensus, backed by multiple runs and surface observations, drove trader sentiment toward the 66–67°F outcome at near-100% implied probability. Unexpected shifts in steering patterns or delayed frontal passage could have allowed modest warming above 68°F, though current data show low likelihood of such revisions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$109,615End Date
May 21, 2026Market Opened
May 19, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
National Weather Service forecast models have consistently projected a daily high of 66–67°F in New York City on May 21, following a brief heat wave with highs in the 90s on May 18–20. Stable high-pressure systems and limited moisture advection suppressed warming, producing cooler northerly flow and clear skies that aligned with climatological norms for late May. This strong model consensus, backed by multiple runs and surface observations, drove trader sentiment toward the 66–67°F outcome at near-100% implied probability. Unexpected shifts in steering patterns or delayed frontal passage could have allowed modest warming above 68°F, though current data show low likelihood of such revisions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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