Recent forecasts from models like those referenced by European and U.S. agencies point to a cooler-than-average airmass over Moscow for July 5, 2026, with expected highs clustered around 17–21°C amid light rain or increased cloud cover. This stems from transient high-pressure ridging and northerly flow suppressing peak solar heating and limiting warm advection from southern latitudes. July climatology favors ~23–24°C maxima, yet current steering patterns and surface conditions differentiate the tight 20–22°C market bins: modest variations in boundary-layer mixing or timing of any clearing could shift the daily peak by 1–2°C. Traders weigh these short-range uncertainties heavily given the two-day horizon and limited model spread.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on July 5?
Highest temperature in Moscow on July 5?
22°C 100%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$66,020 Vol.
$66,020 Vol.
Jul 5, 2026
17°C or below
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C or higher
No
22°C 100%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$66,020 Vol.
$66,020 Vol.
Jul 5, 2026
17°C or below
$5,156 Vol.
No
18°C
$7,131 Vol.
No
19°C
$7,881 Vol.
No
20°C
$9,197 Vol.
No
21°C
$14,234 Vol.
No
22°C
$7,897 Vol.
Yes
23°C
$4,394 Vol.
No
24°C
$1,581 Vol.
No
25°C
$2,865 Vol.
No
26°C
$3,260 Vol.
No
27°C or higher
$2,424 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models like those referenced by European and U.S. agencies point to a cooler-than-average airmass over Moscow for July 5, 2026, with expected highs clustered around 17–21°C amid light rain or increased cloud cover. This stems from transient high-pressure ridging and northerly flow suppressing peak solar heating and limiting warm advection from southern latitudes. July climatology favors ~23–24°C maxima, yet current steering patterns and surface conditions differentiate the tight 20–22°C market bins: modest variations in boundary-layer mixing or timing of any clearing could shift the daily peak by 1–2°C. Traders weigh these short-range uncertainties heavily given the two-day horizon and limited model spread.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 3, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$66,020End Date
Jul 5, 2026Market Opened
Jul 3, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models like those referenced by European and U.S. agencies point to a cooler-than-average airmass over Moscow for July 5, 2026, with expected highs clustered around 17–21°C amid light rain or increased cloud cover. This stems from transient high-pressure ridging and northerly flow suppressing peak solar heating and limiting warm advection from southern latitudes. July climatology favors ~23–24°C maxima, yet current steering patterns and surface conditions differentiate the tight 20–22°C market bins: modest variations in boundary-layer mixing or timing of any clearing could shift the daily peak by 1–2°C. Traders weigh these short-range uncertainties heavily given the two-day horizon and limited model spread.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$66,020End Date
Jul 5, 2026Market Opened
Jul 3, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent forecasts from models like those referenced by European and U.S. agencies point to a cooler-than-average airmass over Moscow for July 5, 2026, with expected highs clustered around 17–21°C amid light rain or increased cloud cover. This stems from transient high-pressure ridging and northerly flow suppressing peak solar heating and limiting warm advection from southern latitudes. July climatology favors ~23–24°C maxima, yet current steering patterns and surface conditions differentiate the tight 20–22°C market bins: modest variations in boundary-layer mixing or timing of any clearing could shift the daily peak by 1–2°C. Traders weigh these short-range uncertainties heavily given the two-day horizon and limited model spread.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions