Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for a high temperature of 70°F or higher in San Francisco on April 19, driven by confirmed hourly observations from the National Weather Service at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), where temperatures peaked above 70°F amid clear skies, light offshore winds, and high pressure ridging that suppressed the typical marine layer. This exceeded the April climatological average of 64°F, as model guidance from NOAA's Global Forecast System had anticipated above-normal warmth from persistent ridging over California. Scenarios challenging this include a rare official revision in the forthcoming Local Climatological Report—due today—if preliminary METAR data overstated the peak due to sensor anomaly, though multiple station validations make this improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on April 19?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 19?
70°F or higher 100.0%
51°F or below <1%
52-53°F <1%
54-55°F <1%
$79,974 Vol.
$79,974 Vol.
Apr 19, 2026
51°F or below
No
52-53°F
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
No
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70°F or higher
Yes
70°F or higher 100.0%
51°F or below <1%
52-53°F <1%
54-55°F <1%
$79,974 Vol.
$79,974 Vol.
Apr 19, 2026
51°F or below
$1,584 Vol.
No
52-53°F
$2,544 Vol.
No
54-55°F
$3,872 Vol.
No
56-57°F
$1,230 Vol.
No
58-59°F
$2,656 Vol.
No
60-61°F
$4,636 Vol.
No
62-63°F
$5,067 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$5,851 Vol.
No
66-67°F
$6,398 Vol.
No
68-69°F
$32,141 Vol.
No
70°F or higher
$13,995 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for a high temperature of 70°F or higher in San Francisco on April 19, driven by confirmed hourly observations from the National Weather Service at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), where temperatures peaked above 70°F amid clear skies, light offshore winds, and high pressure ridging that suppressed the typical marine layer. This exceeded the April climatological average of 64°F, as model guidance from NOAA's Global Forecast System had anticipated above-normal warmth from persistent ridging over California. Scenarios challenging this include a rare official revision in the forthcoming Local Climatological Report—due today—if preliminary METAR data overstated the peak due to sensor anomaly, though multiple station validations make this improbable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 17, 2026, 12:44 AM ET
Volume
$79,974End Date
Apr 19, 2026Market Opened
Apr 17, 2026, 12:44 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for a high temperature of 70°F or higher in San Francisco on April 19, driven by confirmed hourly observations from the National Weather Service at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), where temperatures peaked above 70°F amid clear skies, light offshore winds, and high pressure ridging that suppressed the typical marine layer. This exceeded the April climatological average of 64°F, as model guidance from NOAA's Global Forecast System had anticipated above-normal warmth from persistent ridging over California. Scenarios challenging this include a rare official revision in the forthcoming Local Climatological Report—due today—if preliminary METAR data overstated the peak due to sensor anomaly, though multiple station validations make this improbable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$79,974End Date
Apr 19, 2026Market Opened
Apr 17, 2026, 12:44 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for a high temperature of 70°F or higher in San Francisco on April 19, driven by confirmed hourly observations from the National Weather Service at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), where temperatures peaked above 70°F amid clear skies, light offshore winds, and high pressure ridging that suppressed the typical marine layer. This exceeded the April climatological average of 64°F, as model guidance from NOAA's Global Forecast System had anticipated above-normal warmth from persistent ridging over California. Scenarios challenging this include a rare official revision in the forthcoming Local Climatological Report—due today—if preliminary METAR data overstated the peak due to sensor anomaly, though multiple station validations make this improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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