Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for São Paulo's highest temperature on April 4, with 29°C (29%) and 28°C (28.5%) leading amid model spread from INMET, CPTEC, and Climatempo ensembles projecting maxima of 28–30°C under a high-pressure ridge fostering subsidence and mild warming. Recent developments include yesterday's scattered clouds and highs near 28°C, transitioning to partly cloudy conditions with low rain chances (under 30%), though afternoon sea breeze intensification—common in autumnal São Paulo—could cap peaks at 28°C via enhanced coastal cooling and humidity. Divergence arises from ECMWF vs. GFS handling of boundary layer mixing; INMET hourly updates later today will clarify as resolution nears midnight UTC. Historical April averages hover at 26°C, underscoring the 1–2°C forecast variability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 4?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 4?
28°C 29%
29°C 28%
30°C 20%
27°C 13%
$10,311 Vol.
$10,311 Vol.
25°C or below
2%
26°C
4%
27°C
13%
28°C
29%
29°C
28%
30°C
20%
31°C
5%
32°C
1%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
28°C 29%
29°C 28%
30°C 20%
27°C 13%
$10,311 Vol.
$10,311 Vol.
25°C or below
2%
26°C
4%
27°C
13%
28°C
29%
29°C
28%
30°C
20%
31°C
5%
32°C
1%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 3:20 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for São Paulo's highest temperature on April 4, with 29°C (29%) and 28°C (28.5%) leading amid model spread from INMET, CPTEC, and Climatempo ensembles projecting maxima of 28–30°C under a high-pressure ridge fostering subsidence and mild warming. Recent developments include yesterday's scattered clouds and highs near 28°C, transitioning to partly cloudy conditions with low rain chances (under 30%), though afternoon sea breeze intensification—common in autumnal São Paulo—could cap peaks at 28°C via enhanced coastal cooling and humidity. Divergence arises from ECMWF vs. GFS handling of boundary layer mixing; INMET hourly updates later today will clarify as resolution nears midnight UTC. Historical April averages hover at 26°C, underscoring the 1–2°C forecast variability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions