Trader sentiment for Shenzhen's March 23 highest temperature reveals tight clustering around 25-29°C, with 28°C leading at 26% implied probability due to recent China Meteorological Administration forecasts projecting peaks near 27-29°C under a strengthening subtropical high-pressure ridge. This setup favors warmer outcomes by limiting sea breeze incursions and cloud cover, per ECMWF and GFS ensemble models showing slight upward drifts in the 12-24 hour outlooks. Historical March highs average 24°C but exhibit variability from urban heat island effects and occasional warm anomalies, differentiating 28-29°C from cooler 23-25°C options tied to potential afternoon showers or northerly flows. Lower odds for extremes underscore baseline climatology amid model spread.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on March 23?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 23?
28°C 26%
21°C 26%
22°C 26%
23°C 26%
20°C or below
2%
21°C
26%
22°C
26%
23°C
26%
24°C
26%
25°C
26%
26°C
26%
27°C
26%
28°C
26%
29°C
26%
30°C or higher
26%
28°C 26%
21°C 26%
22°C 26%
23°C 26%
20°C or below
2%
21°C
26%
22°C
26%
23°C
26%
24°C
26%
25°C
26%
26°C
26%
27°C
26%
28°C
26%
29°C
26%
30°C or higher
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Shenzhen's March 23 highest temperature reveals tight clustering around 25-29°C, with 28°C leading at 26% implied probability due to recent China Meteorological Administration forecasts projecting peaks near 27-29°C under a strengthening subtropical high-pressure ridge. This setup favors warmer outcomes by limiting sea breeze incursions and cloud cover, per ECMWF and GFS ensemble models showing slight upward drifts in the 12-24 hour outlooks. Historical March highs average 24°C but exhibit variability from urban heat island effects and occasional warm anomalies, differentiating 28-29°C from cooler 23-25°C options tied to potential afternoon showers or northerly flows. Lower odds for extremes underscore baseline climatology amid model spread.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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