Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 21°C or higher in Chongqing at 41.5% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime maxima of 22-24°C on March 21 amid a strengthening subtropical high-pressure ridge. Recent observations show Chongqing's highs climbing from 18°C on March 18 to 20°C yesterday, aligning with accelerating spring warming in the Yangtze River basin, where urban heat island effects amplify temperatures by 1-2°C. Cooler outcomes like 15°C (26.7%) reflect minority model runs incorporating potential cold air intrusions from the north, though historical March data averages 17-19°C with low variance. Key watch: China Meteorological Administration's 0600 UTC update tomorrow, which could shift odds if cloud cover increases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chongqing on March 21?
Highest temperature in Chongqing on March 21?
20°C 35%
15°C 26.6%
19°C 26%
18°C 19%
11°C or below
1%
12°C
5%
13°C
3%
14°C
10%
15°C
27%
16°C
19%
17°C
3%
18°C
19%
19°C
26%
20°C
20%
21°C or higher
42%
20°C 35%
15°C 26.6%
19°C 26%
18°C 19%
11°C or below
1%
12°C
5%
13°C
3%
14°C
10%
15°C
27%
16°C
19%
17°C
3%
18°C
19%
19°C
26%
20°C
20%
21°C or higher
42%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 6:58 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high of 21°C or higher in Chongqing at 41.5% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime maxima of 22-24°C on March 21 amid a strengthening subtropical high-pressure ridge. Recent observations show Chongqing's highs climbing from 18°C on March 18 to 20°C yesterday, aligning with accelerating spring warming in the Yangtze River basin, where urban heat island effects amplify temperatures by 1-2°C. Cooler outcomes like 15°C (26.7%) reflect minority model runs incorporating potential cold air intrusions from the north, though historical March data averages 17-19°C with low variance. Key watch: China Meteorological Administration's 0600 UTC update tomorrow, which could shift odds if cloud cover increases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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