Latest global weather model ensembles, including ECMWF and GFS, drive trader consensus toward a Shenzhen high temperature of 26-28°C on March 22, with 28°C edging out at 31% implied probability amid a tight cluster reflecting forecast spread. This aligns with historical March averages of 24-26°C but reflects recent mild southerly flows and urban heat island amplification in the Pearl River Delta, pushing peaks higher. Differentiating factors include potential afternoon sea breeze moderation versus clearer skies allowing 29°C outliers, per NOAA and CMA updates; preliminary cloud cover projections add uncertainty, as even partial overcast could cap at 25°C. Traders eye final 00Z runs for resolution shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on March 22?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 22?
28°C 31%
26°C 30%
27°C 29%
25°C 28%
20°C or below
9%
21°C
10%
22°C
26%
23°C
27%
24°C
20%
25°C
28%
26°C
30%
27°C
29%
28°C
31%
29°C
26%
30°C or higher
11%
28°C 31%
26°C 30%
27°C 29%
25°C 28%
20°C or below
9%
21°C
10%
22°C
26%
23°C
27%
24°C
20%
25°C
28%
26°C
30%
27°C
29%
28°C
31%
29°C
26%
30°C or higher
11%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 7:14 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest global weather model ensembles, including ECMWF and GFS, drive trader consensus toward a Shenzhen high temperature of 26-28°C on March 22, with 28°C edging out at 31% implied probability amid a tight cluster reflecting forecast spread. This aligns with historical March averages of 24-26°C but reflects recent mild southerly flows and urban heat island amplification in the Pearl River Delta, pushing peaks higher. Differentiating factors include potential afternoon sea breeze moderation versus clearer skies allowing 29°C outliers, per NOAA and CMA updates; preliminary cloud cover projections add uncertainty, as even partial overcast could cap at 25°C. Traders eye final 00Z runs for resolution shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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