Latest NOAA forecast models, including the GFS and ECMWF ensembles, peg Seattle's March 24 high temperature around 50-52°F, driving trader consensus toward the 50-51°F (30%) and 52-53°F (25.5%) bins amid tight clustering. Persistent onshore flow from the Pacific maintains cool marine air, capping peaks below seasonal norms of 54°F, while partial cloud cover introduces variability—thicker stratus could drag outcomes to 46-47°F (25.5%), but diurnal heating and potential sun breaks favor the mid-50s edge. Recent model runs show slight warming trends overnight, narrowing spreads, though Puget Sound moderation tempers extremes, with <10% odds for 54°F+. Historical March data reinforces low volatility, aligning market-implied odds with verified soundings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seattle on March 24?
Highest temperature in Seattle on March 24?
50-51°F 30%
46-47°F 26%
52-53°F 26%
48-49°F 22%
35°F or below
4%
36-37°F
4%
38-39°F
5%
40-41°F
7%
42-43°F
12%
44-45°F
9%
46-47°F
26%
48-49°F
22%
50-51°F
30%
52-53°F
26%
54°F or higher
8%
50-51°F 30%
46-47°F 26%
52-53°F 26%
48-49°F 22%
35°F or below
4%
36-37°F
4%
38-39°F
5%
40-41°F
7%
42-43°F
12%
44-45°F
9%
46-47°F
26%
48-49°F
22%
50-51°F
30%
52-53°F
26%
54°F or higher
8%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest NOAA forecast models, including the GFS and ECMWF ensembles, peg Seattle's March 24 high temperature around 50-52°F, driving trader consensus toward the 50-51°F (30%) and 52-53°F (25.5%) bins amid tight clustering. Persistent onshore flow from the Pacific maintains cool marine air, capping peaks below seasonal norms of 54°F, while partial cloud cover introduces variability—thicker stratus could drag outcomes to 46-47°F (25.5%), but diurnal heating and potential sun breaks favor the mid-50s edge. Recent model runs show slight warming trends overnight, narrowing spreads, though Puget Sound moderation tempers extremes, with <10% odds for 54°F+. Historical March data reinforces low volatility, aligning market-implied odds with verified soundings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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