Trader consensus favors a Seattle high of 52-53°F at 37% implied probability, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast pinpointing a daytime peak near 52°F under partly cloudy skies with light northwest winds. Ensemble models from GFS and ECMWF reinforce this, projecting mild marine layer influence suppressing temperatures after recent Pacific frontal passages cleared cooler, moist air. Historical March 22 averages hover around 54°F, but current upper-air patterns and soil moisture deficits position the low-50s as frontrunners, with upside risks to 54-55°F (19%) if diurnal heating strengthens. Updated soundings released yesterday nudged odds downward from prior 54-55°F favoritism, highlighting model convergence amid typical spring variability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seattle on March 22?
Highest temperature in Seattle on March 22?
52-53°F 37%
50-51°F 23%
54-55°F 19%
48-49°F 12%
45°F or below
2%
46-47°F
2%
48-49°F
12%
50-51°F
23%
52-53°F
37%
54-55°F
19%
56-57°F
6%
58-59°F
2%
60-61°F
1%
62-63°F
1%
64°F or higher
1%
52-53°F 37%
50-51°F 23%
54-55°F 19%
48-49°F 12%
45°F or below
2%
46-47°F
2%
48-49°F
12%
50-51°F
23%
52-53°F
37%
54-55°F
19%
56-57°F
6%
58-59°F
2%
60-61°F
1%
62-63°F
1%
64°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a Seattle high of 52-53°F at 37% implied probability, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast pinpointing a daytime peak near 52°F under partly cloudy skies with light northwest winds. Ensemble models from GFS and ECMWF reinforce this, projecting mild marine layer influence suppressing temperatures after recent Pacific frontal passages cleared cooler, moist air. Historical March 22 averages hover around 54°F, but current upper-air patterns and soil moisture deficits position the low-50s as frontrunners, with upside risks to 54-55°F (19%) if diurnal heating strengthens. Updated soundings released yesterday nudged odds downward from prior 54-55°F favoritism, highlighting model convergence amid typical spring variability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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