Divergent weather model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS are driving the split trader sentiment for Tel Aviv's highest temperature on March 24, with market-implied odds evenly balanced at 25.5% for 13°C or below versus 23°C or higher, while 19°C and 20°C lead mid-range at 18% each. Cool outcomes hinge on a potential Cyprus low funneling northerly winds and Mediterranean air masses, dropping highs below seasonal norms of 19-21°C, as hinted in recent Israel Meteorological Service updates amid ongoing ensemble spread. Warmer scenarios rely on a weakening low-pressure system allowing subtropical ridging and sea-breeze moderation to push temperatures up. Traders eye tomorrow's 12Z model runs for resolution clarity, with historical March volatility amplifying uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 24?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 24?
19°C 23%
20°C 18%
18°C 17%
16°C 17%
13°C or below
8%
14°C
9%
15°C
14%
16°C
17%
17°C
17%
18°C
17%
19°C
23%
20°C
18%
21°C
15%
22°C
11%
23°C or higher
9%
19°C 23%
20°C 18%
18°C 17%
16°C 17%
13°C or below
8%
14°C
9%
15°C
14%
16°C
17%
17°C
17%
18°C
17%
19°C
23%
20°C
18%
21°C
15%
22°C
11%
23°C or higher
9%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Divergent weather model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS are driving the split trader sentiment for Tel Aviv's highest temperature on March 24, with market-implied odds evenly balanced at 25.5% for 13°C or below versus 23°C or higher, while 19°C and 20°C lead mid-range at 18% each. Cool outcomes hinge on a potential Cyprus low funneling northerly winds and Mediterranean air masses, dropping highs below seasonal norms of 19-21°C, as hinted in recent Israel Meteorological Service updates amid ongoing ensemble spread. Warmer scenarios rely on a weakening low-pressure system allowing subtropical ridging and sea-breeze moderation to push temperatures up. Traders eye tomorrow's 12Z model runs for resolution clarity, with historical March volatility amplifying uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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