Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 82-83°F (29.5% implied probability) as the highest temperature in Miami on March 24, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast of a high near 83°F under a building high-pressure ridge fostering subsidence warming and mostly sunny skies. Ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF models converges around 82-83°F, differentiating it from slightly cooler 80-81°F odds (25.5%) via reduced sea-breeze influence from light WSW winds and drier mid-level air, while 84-85°F (25%) reflects outlier hotter runs but risks afternoon marine layer capping. Historical late-March averages hover at 79°F, but persistent warmth elevates baselines; monitor 48-hour model updates for resolution shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Miami on March 24?
Highest temperature in Miami on March 24?
82-83°F 30%
84-85°F 25%
80-81°F 23%
86-87°F 17%
73°F or below
6%
74-75°F
10%
76-77°F
13%
78-79°F
17%
80-81°F
23%
82-83°F
30%
84-85°F
25%
86-87°F
17%
88-89°F
13%
90-91°F
10%
92°F or higher
9%
82-83°F 30%
84-85°F 25%
80-81°F 23%
86-87°F 17%
73°F or below
6%
74-75°F
10%
76-77°F
13%
78-79°F
17%
80-81°F
23%
82-83°F
30%
84-85°F
25%
86-87°F
17%
88-89°F
13%
90-91°F
10%
92°F or higher
9%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 82-83°F (29.5% implied probability) as the highest temperature in Miami on March 24, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast of a high near 83°F under a building high-pressure ridge fostering subsidence warming and mostly sunny skies. Ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF models converges around 82-83°F, differentiating it from slightly cooler 80-81°F odds (25.5%) via reduced sea-breeze influence from light WSW winds and drier mid-level air, while 84-85°F (25%) reflects outlier hotter runs but risks afternoon marine layer capping. Historical late-March averages hover at 79°F, but persistent warmth elevates baselines; monitor 48-hour model updates for resolution shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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