Trader consensus favors 94-95°F (25.5% implied probability) for Austin's March 24 high temperature, driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble means projecting peaks near 95°F amid a robust upper-level ridge over the southern Plains. This setup promotes downslope warming and southerly low-level winds advecting moist, warm air from the Gulf of Mexico, with dewpoints in the 50s°F limiting convective activity and allowing full insolation. Closely trailing bins (84-95°F cluster at ~18% each) reflect model spread: GFS hotter due to stronger subsidence, ECMWF cooler with hinted mid-afternoon cumulus shading; historical March norms (~75°F) underscore the +20°F anomaly risk from climate variability. Watch NWS 12z updates for refined boundary layer profiles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on March 24?
Highest temperature in Austin on March 24?
94-95°F 26%
84-85°F 18%
86-87°F 18%
88-89°F 18%
79°F or below
8%
80-81°F
9%
82-83°F
18%
84-85°F
18%
86-87°F
18%
88-89°F
18%
90-91°F
18%
92-93°F
18%
94-95°F
26%
96-97°F
18%
98°F or higher
8%
94-95°F 26%
84-85°F 18%
86-87°F 18%
88-89°F 18%
79°F or below
8%
80-81°F
9%
82-83°F
18%
84-85°F
18%
86-87°F
18%
88-89°F
18%
90-91°F
18%
92-93°F
18%
94-95°F
26%
96-97°F
18%
98°F or higher
8%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 94-95°F (25.5% implied probability) for Austin's March 24 high temperature, driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble means projecting peaks near 95°F amid a robust upper-level ridge over the southern Plains. This setup promotes downslope warming and southerly low-level winds advecting moist, warm air from the Gulf of Mexico, with dewpoints in the 50s°F limiting convective activity and allowing full insolation. Closely trailing bins (84-95°F cluster at ~18% each) reflect model spread: GFS hotter due to stronger subsidence, ECMWF cooler with hinted mid-afternoon cumulus shading; historical March norms (~75°F) underscore the +20°F anomaly risk from climate variability. Watch NWS 12z updates for refined boundary layer profiles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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