Trader sentiment for Los Angeles' highest temperature on March 24 remains tightly split, with NOAA and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converging on a 76-77°F peak (26% implied odds) amid a strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Southwest promoting adiabatic warming. Recent GFS 12Z runs have elevated 84°F or higher chances (26%) through potential Santa Ana winds that could scour marine stratus clouds, enabling downslope compression and extreme heat, contrasting persistent coastal low clouds bolstering 68-69°F odds (25.5%). Upper-air ridging depth and boundary layer mixing differentiate these; historical March maxima average 70°F, but drier antecedent conditions tilt toward warmth as 18Z updates loom.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Los Angeles on March 24?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on March 24?
76-77°F 26%
84°F or higher 26%
74-75°F 18%
78-79°F 18%
65°F or below
8%
66-67°F
9%
68-69°F
26%
70-71°F
18%
72-73°F
18%
74-75°F
18%
76-77°F
26%
78-79°F
18%
80-81°F
26%
82-83°F
18%
84°F or higher
26%
76-77°F 26%
84°F or higher 26%
74-75°F 18%
78-79°F 18%
65°F or below
8%
66-67°F
9%
68-69°F
26%
70-71°F
18%
72-73°F
18%
74-75°F
18%
76-77°F
26%
78-79°F
18%
80-81°F
26%
82-83°F
18%
84°F or higher
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 6:06 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Los Angeles' highest temperature on March 24 remains tightly split, with NOAA and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converging on a 76-77°F peak (26% implied odds) amid a strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Southwest promoting adiabatic warming. Recent GFS 12Z runs have elevated 84°F or higher chances (26%) through potential Santa Ana winds that could scour marine stratus clouds, enabling downslope compression and extreme heat, contrasting persistent coastal low clouds bolstering 68-69°F odds (25.5%). Upper-air ridging depth and boundary layer mixing differentiate these; historical March maxima average 70°F, but drier antecedent conditions tilt toward warmth as 18Z updates loom.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions