Trader sentiment for Taipei's highest temperature on March 24 reflects deep uncertainty in ensemble weather models, with equal market-implied odds (25.5%) for 21°C or below versus 31°C or higher, driven by conflicting signals from the ECMWF and GFS ensembles. Taiwan's Central Weather Administration forecasts a high around 26-28°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds, but a potential northward shift in the subtropical high could amplify urban heat island effects for 30°C+ spikes, while an incoming mid-latitude trough risks cooler advection dropping temps below 22°C. Historical March highs average 24°C, with recent upper-air analyses showing weak jet stream meanders differentiating these paths; watch CWA's 12Z update for resolution catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Taipei on March 24?
Highest temperature in Taipei on March 24?
21°C or below 26%
31°C or higher 26%
27°C 25%
28°C 19%
21°C or below
26%
22°C
12%
23°C
15%
24°C
17%
25°C
17%
26°C
18%
27°C
25%
28°C
19%
29°C
15%
30°C
12%
31°C or higher
26%
21°C or below 26%
31°C or higher 26%
27°C 25%
28°C 19%
21°C or below
26%
22°C
12%
23°C
15%
24°C
17%
25°C
17%
26°C
18%
27°C
25%
28°C
19%
29°C
15%
30°C
12%
31°C or higher
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 6:26 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Taipei's highest temperature on March 24 reflects deep uncertainty in ensemble weather models, with equal market-implied odds (25.5%) for 21°C or below versus 31°C or higher, driven by conflicting signals from the ECMWF and GFS ensembles. Taiwan's Central Weather Administration forecasts a high around 26-28°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds, but a potential northward shift in the subtropical high could amplify urban heat island effects for 30°C+ spikes, while an incoming mid-latitude trough risks cooler advection dropping temps below 22°C. Historical March highs average 24°C, with recent upper-air analyses showing weak jet stream meanders differentiating these paths; watch CWA's 12Z update for resolution catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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