Trader consensus on Chengdu's March 22 high temperature clusters tightly around 22-24°C at roughly 26% each, driven by ensemble weather model forecasts from sources like the ECMWF and GFS, which project peaks in this narrow band amid mild spring conditions. Recent observations show daytime highs stabilizing near 20°C with light southerly winds enhancing solar heating, pushing implied odds above historical March averages of 17-19°C. Differentiation hinges on model spread: ECMWF leans warmer at 23-24°C due to clearer skies in its physics, while GFS favors 22°C with added cloudiness; a 21°C outcome gains traction if overnight cooling persists. Uncertainty lingers from potential frontal systems, with official updates from China Meteorological Administration expected to refine probabilities ahead of resolution based on verified station data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on March 22?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 22?
23°C 27%
21°C 26%
22°C 26%
24°C 26%
17°C or below
21%
18°C
18%
19°C
18%
20°C
18%
21°C
26%
22°C
26%
23°C
27%
24°C
26%
26°C
18%
27°C or higher
18%
23°C 27%
21°C 26%
22°C 26%
24°C 26%
17°C or below
21%
18°C
18%
19°C
18%
20°C
18%
21°C
26%
22°C
26%
23°C
27%
24°C
26%
26°C
18%
27°C or higher
18%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 6:59 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Chengdu's March 22 high temperature clusters tightly around 22-24°C at roughly 26% each, driven by ensemble weather model forecasts from sources like the ECMWF and GFS, which project peaks in this narrow band amid mild spring conditions. Recent observations show daytime highs stabilizing near 20°C with light southerly winds enhancing solar heating, pushing implied odds above historical March averages of 17-19°C. Differentiation hinges on model spread: ECMWF leans warmer at 23-24°C due to clearer skies in its physics, while GFS favors 22°C with added cloudiness; a 21°C outcome gains traction if overnight cooling persists. Uncertainty lingers from potential frontal systems, with official updates from China Meteorological Administration expected to refine probabilities ahead of resolution based on verified station data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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