Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in at virtually 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of exactly 30°C in Shenzhen on May 12, 2026, driven by official observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport—the designated resolution station—recording this peak via standard whole-degree Celsius measurements. Cloudy skies and light rain throughout the day significantly reduced solar insolation, capping heating despite pre-event forecasts from models like AccuWeather projecting 31–33°C amid typical May humidity and southerly flows. This aligns with Shenzhen's climatological May average highs near 29°C, per historical data from the China Meteorological Administration. Realistic challenges would require rare post-observation revisions from authoritative sources, though none are anticipated as the market has resolved accordingly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on May 12?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 12?
30°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$58,535 Vol.
$58,535 Vol.
May 12, 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$58,535 Vol.
$58,535 Vol.
May 12, 2026
23°C or below
$2,316 Vol.
No
24°C
$1,381 Vol.
No
25°C
$2,065 Vol.
No
26°C
$2,286 Vol.
No
27°C
$3,220 Vol.
No
28°C
$5,157 Vol.
No
29°C
$19,130 Vol.
No
30°C
$7,915 Vol.
Yes
31°C
$4,856 Vol.
No
32°C
$5,698 Vol.
No
33°C or higher
$4,512 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in at virtually 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of exactly 30°C in Shenzhen on May 12, 2026, driven by official observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport—the designated resolution station—recording this peak via standard whole-degree Celsius measurements. Cloudy skies and light rain throughout the day significantly reduced solar insolation, capping heating despite pre-event forecasts from models like AccuWeather projecting 31–33°C amid typical May humidity and southerly flows. This aligns with Shenzhen's climatological May average highs near 29°C, per historical data from the China Meteorological Administration. Realistic challenges would require rare post-observation revisions from authoritative sources, though none are anticipated as the market has resolved accordingly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 10, 2026, 12:26 AM ET
Volume
$58,535End Date
May 12, 2026Market Opened
May 10, 2026, 12:26 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in at virtually 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of exactly 30°C in Shenzhen on May 12, 2026, driven by official observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport—the designated resolution station—recording this peak via standard whole-degree Celsius measurements. Cloudy skies and light rain throughout the day significantly reduced solar insolation, capping heating despite pre-event forecasts from models like AccuWeather projecting 31–33°C amid typical May humidity and southerly flows. This aligns with Shenzhen's climatological May average highs near 29°C, per historical data from the China Meteorological Administration. Realistic challenges would require rare post-observation revisions from authoritative sources, though none are anticipated as the market has resolved accordingly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$58,535End Date
May 12, 2026Market Opened
May 10, 2026, 12:26 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in at virtually 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of exactly 30°C in Shenzhen on May 12, 2026, driven by official observations from Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport—the designated resolution station—recording this peak via standard whole-degree Celsius measurements. Cloudy skies and light rain throughout the day significantly reduced solar insolation, capping heating despite pre-event forecasts from models like AccuWeather projecting 31–33°C amid typical May humidity and southerly flows. This aligns with Shenzhen's climatological May average highs near 29°C, per historical data from the China Meteorological Administration. Realistic challenges would require rare post-observation revisions from authoritative sources, though none are anticipated as the market has resolved accordingly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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