Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-100% implied probability to a 24°C high temperature in Tel Aviv today, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from global models like ECMWF and GFS, which cluster peaks at 23-24°C amid light southerly winds, partial cloud cover, and typical April climatology averaging 22-24°C daytime highs. Preliminary observations from Israel Meteorological Service stations, including Tel Aviv Coast, support this positioning, showing midday readings approaching 24°C despite the agency's conservative 20°C cap accounting for coastal moderation. Realistic challenges include a rare late-afternoon heat burst pushing to 25°C under clearer skies or a downward measurement revision, though model divergence is minimal with resolution imminent via official IMS daily maximum at the designated station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on April 19?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on April 19?
24°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$60,306 Vol.
$60,306 Vol.
Apr 19, 2026
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
Yes
25°C
No
26°C or higher
No
24°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$60,306 Vol.
$60,306 Vol.
Apr 19, 2026
16°C or below
$2,552 Vol.
No
17°C
$2,156 Vol.
No
18°C
$3,157 Vol.
No
19°C
$2,099 Vol.
No
20°C
$6,968 Vol.
No
21°C
$6,966 Vol.
No
22°C
$7,341 Vol.
No
23°C
$7,645 Vol.
No
24°C
$10,596 Vol.
Yes
25°C
$4,660 Vol.
No
26°C or higher
$6,167 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-100% implied probability to a 24°C high temperature in Tel Aviv today, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from global models like ECMWF and GFS, which cluster peaks at 23-24°C amid light southerly winds, partial cloud cover, and typical April climatology averaging 22-24°C daytime highs. Preliminary observations from Israel Meteorological Service stations, including Tel Aviv Coast, support this positioning, showing midday readings approaching 24°C despite the agency's conservative 20°C cap accounting for coastal moderation. Realistic challenges include a rare late-afternoon heat burst pushing to 25°C under clearer skies or a downward measurement revision, though model divergence is minimal with resolution imminent via official IMS daily maximum at the designated station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 17, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$60,306End Date
Apr 19, 2026Market Opened
Apr 17, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-100% implied probability to a 24°C high temperature in Tel Aviv today, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from global models like ECMWF and GFS, which cluster peaks at 23-24°C amid light southerly winds, partial cloud cover, and typical April climatology averaging 22-24°C daytime highs. Preliminary observations from Israel Meteorological Service stations, including Tel Aviv Coast, support this positioning, showing midday readings approaching 24°C despite the agency's conservative 20°C cap accounting for coastal moderation. Realistic challenges include a rare late-afternoon heat burst pushing to 25°C under clearer skies or a downward measurement revision, though model divergence is minimal with resolution imminent via official IMS daily maximum at the designated station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$60,306End Date
Apr 19, 2026Market Opened
Apr 17, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-100% implied probability to a 24°C high temperature in Tel Aviv today, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from global models like ECMWF and GFS, which cluster peaks at 23-24°C amid light southerly winds, partial cloud cover, and typical April climatology averaging 22-24°C daytime highs. Preliminary observations from Israel Meteorological Service stations, including Tel Aviv Coast, support this positioning, showing midday readings approaching 24°C despite the agency's conservative 20°C cap accounting for coastal moderation. Realistic challenges include a rare late-afternoon heat burst pushing to 25°C under clearer skies or a downward measurement revision, though model divergence is minimal with resolution imminent via official IMS daily maximum at the designated station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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