Latest MetService ensemble forecasts for Wellington indicate a March 29 high temperature clustering around 18–20°C, mirroring trader-implied odds with 19°C (28%) edging 20°C (24%) and 18°C (22%). A persistent southerly airflow, carrying cooler maritime air from the Cook Strait, caps warming potential despite some morning sunshine, as shown in recent GFS and ECMWF model runs updated within the last 24 hours. Partial cloud cover and sea breeze intensification further differentiate outcomes, with historical March highs averaging 19.5°C but recent days trending 1–2°C cooler. Uncertainty persists in afternoon clearing timing; fresh observations from Wellington Airport will resolve the market, with updates hourly through midday.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on March 29?
Highest temperature in Wellington on March 29?
19°C 28%
20°C 24%
18°C 22%
17°C 12%
13°C or below
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
3%
16°C
7%
17°C
12%
18°C
22%
19°C
28%
20°C
24%
21°C
7%
22°C
5%
23°C or higher
5%
19°C 28%
20°C 24%
18°C 22%
17°C 12%
13°C or below
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
3%
16°C
7%
17°C
12%
18°C
22%
19°C
28%
20°C
24%
21°C
7%
22°C
5%
23°C or higher
5%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 25, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest MetService ensemble forecasts for Wellington indicate a March 29 high temperature clustering around 18–20°C, mirroring trader-implied odds with 19°C (28%) edging 20°C (24%) and 18°C (22%). A persistent southerly airflow, carrying cooler maritime air from the Cook Strait, caps warming potential despite some morning sunshine, as shown in recent GFS and ECMWF model runs updated within the last 24 hours. Partial cloud cover and sea breeze intensification further differentiate outcomes, with historical March highs averaging 19.5°C but recent days trending 1–2°C cooler. Uncertainty persists in afternoon clearing timing; fresh observations from Wellington Airport will resolve the market, with updates hourly through midday.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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