Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast uncertainty for Chongqing's highest temperature on March 29, with models implying a peak around 18–21°C amid the city's subtropical monsoon climate, where early spring highs typically range 15–22°C based on historical China Meteorological Administration data. Recent GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs from the past 24 hours show a slight warming trend post a brief cool front, centering probabilities on 19°C (22%) and 20°C (19%), differentiated by cloud cover variability and Yangtze River valley humidity influencing daytime heating—clearer skies favor 20–21°C, while persistent overcast supports 18°C. Diurnal maximums often occur mid-afternoon; watch CMA hourly updates for resolution-defining observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chongqing on March 29?
Highest temperature in Chongqing on March 29?
19°C 22%
18°C 20%
20°C 18%
21°C 16%
14°C or below
2%
15°C
3%
16°C
5%
17°C
9%
18°C
20%
19°C
22%
20°C
18%
21°C
16%
22°C
6%
23°C
6%
24°C or higher
2%
19°C 22%
18°C 20%
20°C 18%
21°C 16%
14°C or below
2%
15°C
3%
16°C
5%
17°C
9%
18°C
20%
19°C
22%
20°C
18%
21°C
16%
22°C
6%
23°C
6%
24°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 25, 2026, 6:42 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast uncertainty for Chongqing's highest temperature on March 29, with models implying a peak around 18–21°C amid the city's subtropical monsoon climate, where early spring highs typically range 15–22°C based on historical China Meteorological Administration data. Recent GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs from the past 24 hours show a slight warming trend post a brief cool front, centering probabilities on 19°C (22%) and 20°C (19%), differentiated by cloud cover variability and Yangtze River valley humidity influencing daytime heating—clearer skies favor 20–21°C, while persistent overcast supports 18°C. Diurnal maximums often occur mid-afternoon; watch CMA hourly updates for resolution-defining observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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