Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Wuhan's highest temperature reaching exactly 23°C on April 30, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecast update pinpointing this precise peak under fine, sunny conditions with light southerly winds around 3 km/h. Observational data from Wuhan Tianhe International Airport, the market's resolution source, aligns closely, showing daytime readings approaching 23°C amid stable atmospheric profiles and minimal cloud cover, as confirmed by regional bulletins like the Hong Kong Observatory's report listing a 23°C high. Global numerical weather prediction models exhibit strong agreement on subdued convective activity and boundary layer constraints preventing exceedance. While inherent forecast uncertainty persists, realistic challenges—such as unexpected prolonged solar insolation or minor warm air advection—appear negligible given the late-day timing and narrow confidence intervals, with final airport measurements expected soon to resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wuhan on April 30?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on April 30?
23°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$54,098 Vol.
$54,098 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
Yes
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
23°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$54,098 Vol.
$54,098 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
18°C or below
$3,484 Vol.
No
19°C
$4,211 Vol.
No
20°C
$3,538 Vol.
No
21°C
$3,980 Vol.
No
22°C
$8,026 Vol.
No
23°C
$5,411 Vol.
Yes
24°C
$5,352 Vol.
No
25°C
$6,326 Vol.
No
26°C
$5,524 Vol.
No
27°C
$3,233 Vol.
No
28°C or higher
$5,011 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Wuhan's highest temperature reaching exactly 23°C on April 30, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecast update pinpointing this precise peak under fine, sunny conditions with light southerly winds around 3 km/h. Observational data from Wuhan Tianhe International Airport, the market's resolution source, aligns closely, showing daytime readings approaching 23°C amid stable atmospheric profiles and minimal cloud cover, as confirmed by regional bulletins like the Hong Kong Observatory's report listing a 23°C high. Global numerical weather prediction models exhibit strong agreement on subdued convective activity and boundary layer constraints preventing exceedance. While inherent forecast uncertainty persists, realistic challenges—such as unexpected prolonged solar insolation or minor warm air advection—appear negligible given the late-day timing and narrow confidence intervals, with final airport measurements expected soon to resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 2:59 PM ET
Volume
$54,098End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 2:59 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Wuhan's highest temperature reaching exactly 23°C on April 30, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecast update pinpointing this precise peak under fine, sunny conditions with light southerly winds around 3 km/h. Observational data from Wuhan Tianhe International Airport, the market's resolution source, aligns closely, showing daytime readings approaching 23°C amid stable atmospheric profiles and minimal cloud cover, as confirmed by regional bulletins like the Hong Kong Observatory's report listing a 23°C high. Global numerical weather prediction models exhibit strong agreement on subdued convective activity and boundary layer constraints preventing exceedance. While inherent forecast uncertainty persists, realistic challenges—such as unexpected prolonged solar insolation or minor warm air advection—appear negligible given the late-day timing and narrow confidence intervals, with final airport measurements expected soon to resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$54,098End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 2:59 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Wuhan's highest temperature reaching exactly 23°C on April 30, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecast update pinpointing this precise peak under fine, sunny conditions with light southerly winds around 3 km/h. Observational data from Wuhan Tianhe International Airport, the market's resolution source, aligns closely, showing daytime readings approaching 23°C amid stable atmospheric profiles and minimal cloud cover, as confirmed by regional bulletins like the Hong Kong Observatory's report listing a 23°C high. Global numerical weather prediction models exhibit strong agreement on subdued convective activity and boundary layer constraints preventing exceedance. While inherent forecast uncertainty persists, realistic challenges—such as unexpected prolonged solar insolation or minor warm air advection—appear negligible given the late-day timing and narrow confidence intervals, with final airport measurements expected soon to resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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