The Illinois 5th congressional district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+19 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent Solid D rating from forecasters, underpins the 94.5% market consensus for a Democratic victory. Incumbent Mike Quigley secured the nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 65% of the vote against challengers including Matthew Conroy, while Republican nominee Tommy Hanson prevailed in his primary. The district covers affluent, highly educated urban and suburban areas of Chicago with a history of large Democratic margins, including Quigley's 69% share in 2024. Absent major developments such as a candidate withdrawal, significant scandal, or unexpected national political realignment before November, the structural and incumbency advantages make a Republican upset improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIL-05 House Election Winner
IL-05 House Election Winner
$16,029 Vol.
$16,029 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$16,029 Vol.
$16,029 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$8,737 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$7,292 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 5th congressional district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+19 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent Solid D rating from forecasters, underpins the 94.5% market consensus for a Democratic victory. Incumbent Mike Quigley secured the nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 65% of the vote against challengers including Matthew Conroy, while Republican nominee Tommy Hanson prevailed in his primary. The district covers affluent, highly educated urban and suburban areas of Chicago with a history of large Democratic margins, including Quigley's 69% share in 2024. Absent major developments such as a candidate withdrawal, significant scandal, or unexpected national political realignment before November, the structural and incumbency advantages make a Republican upset improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$16,029End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 5th congressional district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+19 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent Solid D rating from forecasters, underpins the 94.5% market consensus for a Democratic victory. Incumbent Mike Quigley secured the nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 65% of the vote against challengers including Matthew Conroy, while Republican nominee Tommy Hanson prevailed in his primary. The district covers affluent, highly educated urban and suburban areas of Chicago with a history of large Democratic margins, including Quigley's 69% share in 2024. Absent major developments such as a candidate withdrawal, significant scandal, or unexpected national political realignment before November, the structural and incumbency advantages make a Republican upset improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$16,029End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Illinois 5th congressional district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+19 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent Solid D rating from forecasters, underpins the 94.5% market consensus for a Democratic victory. Incumbent Mike Quigley secured the nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 65% of the vote against challengers including Matthew Conroy, while Republican nominee Tommy Hanson prevailed in his primary. The district covers affluent, highly educated urban and suburban areas of Chicago with a history of large Democratic margins, including Quigley's 69% share in 2024. Absent major developments such as a candidate withdrawal, significant scandal, or unexpected national political realignment before November, the structural and incumbency advantages make a Republican upset improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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