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Geopolitics·Hezbollah

Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by...?

Market icon
Geopolitics·Hezbollah

Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by...?

$474,781 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$474,781 Vol.

Polymarket

April 17

$396,636 Vol.

40%

April 30

$68,505 Vol.

78%

May 31

$12,198 Vol.

89%

June 30

$11,389 Vol.

91%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, or the Israeli military publicly and definitively announces a halt to the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying announcements must unambiguously indicate a halt to offensive ground operations as well as a halt to military strikes, such as airstrikes, artillery fire, or similar offensive strikes against targets in Lebanon. Statements that unambiguously imply both the cessation of offensive ground operations and strikes may suffice even if not stated explicitly (e.g, “The Israeli Defense Forces have concluded their operations in Lebanon”). An announcement of a total withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory is not required. Announcements that do not indicate a halt to the offensive military operations as a whole (e.g., referring only to a specific phase, type of operation, or geographic subset of operations) will not qualify. Qualifying announcements must clearly indicate that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon has concluded, is halted, or will conclude or be halted on a specific date, even if only for a defined, limited period. A temporary ceasefire agreement will qualify if it explicitly indicates that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon is halted. Informal announcements, statements that the offensive will halt at some undefined future time, or statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, and the Israeli military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether Israeli military hostilities actually halt in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.Israel sustains its military offensive against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, which resumed on March 2 following a militant attack, despite a US-brokered ceasefire with Iran last week that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu explicitly excluded from the Lebanese theater. Recent escalations include coordinated IDF strikes on April 8 and intensified assaults on border towns ahead of direct Israel-Lebanon talks hosted in Washington this week, where Lebanon demands a halt to hostilities while Israel insists on Hezbollah disarmament. US and Lebanese officials urge suspension of attacks to enable negotiations, but Netanyahu has ordered continuation, creating trader uncertainty around any definitive public announcement from the Israeli government or IDF amid diplomatic pressures and potential de-escalation signals.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, or the Israeli military publicly and definitively announces a halt to the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Qualifying announcements must unambiguously indicate a halt to offensive ground operations as well as a halt to military strikes, such as airstrikes, artillery fire, or similar offensive strikes against targets in Lebanon. Statements that unambiguously imply both the cessation of offensive ground operations and strikes may suffice even if not stated explicitly (e.g, “The Israeli Defense Forces have concluded their operations in Lebanon”). An announcement of a total withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory is not required.

Announcements that do not indicate a halt to the offensive military operations as a whole (e.g., referring only to a specific phase, type of operation, or geographic subset of operations) will not qualify.

Qualifying announcements must clearly indicate that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon has concluded, is halted, or will conclude or be halted on a specific date, even if only for a defined, limited period. A temporary ceasefire agreement will qualify if it explicitly indicates that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon is halted.

Informal announcements, statements that the offensive will halt at some undefined future time, or statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, and the Israeli military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether Israeli military hostilities actually halt in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Volume
$474,781
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 10, 2026, 2:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, or the Israeli military publicly and definitively announces a halt to the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying announcements must unambiguously indicate a halt to offensive ground operations as well as a halt to military strikes, such as airstrikes, artillery fire, or similar offensive strikes against targets in Lebanon. Statements that unambiguously imply both the cessation of offensive ground operations and strikes may suffice even if not stated explicitly (e.g, “The Israeli Defense Forces have concluded their operations in Lebanon”). An announcement of a total withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory is not required. Announcements that do not indicate a halt to the offensive military operations as a whole (e.g., referring only to a specific phase, type of operation, or geographic subset of operations) will not qualify. Qualifying announcements must clearly indicate that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon has concluded, is halted, or will conclude or be halted on a specific date, even if only for a defined, limited period. A temporary ceasefire agreement will qualify if it explicitly indicates that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon is halted. Informal announcements, statements that the offensive will halt at some undefined future time, or statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, and the Israeli military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether Israeli military hostilities actually halt in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, or the Israeli military publicly and definitively announces a halt to the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying announcements must unambiguously indicate a halt to offensive ground operations as well as a halt to military strikes, such as airstrikes, artillery fire, or similar offensive strikes against targets in Lebanon. Statements that unambiguously imply both the cessation of offensive ground operations and strikes may suffice even if not stated explicitly (e.g, “The Israeli Defense Forces have concluded their operations in Lebanon”). An announcement of a total withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory is not required. Announcements that do not indicate a halt to the offensive military operations as a whole (e.g., referring only to a specific phase, type of operation, or geographic subset of operations) will not qualify. Qualifying announcements must clearly indicate that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon has concluded, is halted, or will conclude or be halted on a specific date, even if only for a defined, limited period. A temporary ceasefire agreement will qualify if it explicitly indicates that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon is halted. Informal announcements, statements that the offensive will halt at some undefined future time, or statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, and the Israeli military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether Israeli military hostilities actually halt in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.Israel sustains its military offensive against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, which resumed on March 2 following a militant attack, despite a US-brokered ceasefire with Iran last week that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu explicitly excluded from the Lebanese theater. Recent escalations include coordinated IDF strikes on April 8 and intensified assaults on border towns ahead of direct Israel-Lebanon talks hosted in Washington this week, where Lebanon demands a halt to hostilities while Israel insists on Hezbollah disarmament. US and Lebanese officials urge suspension of attacks to enable negotiations, but Netanyahu has ordered continuation, creating trader uncertainty around any definitive public announcement from the Israeli government or IDF amid diplomatic pressures and potential de-escalation signals.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, or the Israeli military publicly and definitively announces a halt to the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Qualifying announcements must unambiguously indicate a halt to offensive ground operations as well as a halt to military strikes, such as airstrikes, artillery fire, or similar offensive strikes against targets in Lebanon. Statements that unambiguously imply both the cessation of offensive ground operations and strikes may suffice even if not stated explicitly (e.g, “The Israeli Defense Forces have concluded their operations in Lebanon”). An announcement of a total withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory is not required.

Announcements that do not indicate a halt to the offensive military operations as a whole (e.g., referring only to a specific phase, type of operation, or geographic subset of operations) will not qualify.

Qualifying announcements must clearly indicate that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon has concluded, is halted, or will conclude or be halted on a specific date, even if only for a defined, limited period. A temporary ceasefire agreement will qualify if it explicitly indicates that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon is halted.

Informal announcements, statements that the offensive will halt at some undefined future time, or statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, and the Israeli military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether Israeli military hostilities actually halt in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Volume
$474,781
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 10, 2026, 2:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, or the Israeli military publicly and definitively announces a halt to the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying announcements must unambiguously indicate a halt to offensive ground operations as well as a halt to military strikes, such as airstrikes, artillery fire, or similar offensive strikes against targets in Lebanon. Statements that unambiguously imply both the cessation of offensive ground operations and strikes may suffice even if not stated explicitly (e.g, “The Israeli Defense Forces have concluded their operations in Lebanon”). An announcement of a total withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory is not required. Announcements that do not indicate a halt to the offensive military operations as a whole (e.g., referring only to a specific phase, type of operation, or geographic subset of operations) will not qualify. Qualifying announcements must clearly indicate that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon has concluded, is halted, or will conclude or be halted on a specific date, even if only for a defined, limited period. A temporary ceasefire agreement will qualify if it explicitly indicates that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon is halted. Informal announcements, statements that the offensive will halt at some undefined future time, or statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, and the Israeli military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether Israeli military hostilities actually halt in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "June 30" at 91%, followed by "May 31" at 89%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 91¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by...?" has generated $474.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 10, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by...?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by...?" is "June 30" at 91%, meaning the market assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "May 31" at 89%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.