Senator Lisa Murkowski continues to serve and campaign as a Republican, with no announcement or procedural step toward leaving the party or becoming an independent by the end of 2026. She has maintained roughly 85% alignment with Trump administration positions on major Senate votes, including support for most cabinet and judicial nominees, while occasionally breaking ranks on targeted issues such as certain nominations and net neutrality provisions. Past statements expressing discomfort with party labels or openness to independence have not translated into action, and she remains registered Republican, chairs relevant subcommittees, and pursues re-election under the GOP banner. Traders price the slim probability of departure around the absence of any recent catalyst sufficient to overcome institutional and electoral incentives for continued affiliation.