Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies like ECMWF and GFS indicate Ankara's minimum temperature on September 15 will most likely fall between 8–13°C under clear to partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds. This central range produces closely matched trader odds near 49% for both the ≤5°C and ≥15°C outcomes, reflecting residual uncertainty in boundary-layer cooling rates, dew point depressions, and possible subtle warm-air advection. Historical September nighttime minima average 11–14°C, providing context for why extremes remain improbable yet viable if model runs shift with updated observations. Key upcoming inputs include the next 00Z and 12Z model cycles plus local station data from Esenboğa Airport, which will refine the implied probability distribution ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Ankara on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Ankara on September 15?
5°C or below 47%
15°C or higher 47%
6°C 39%
13°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
5°C or below
47%
6°C
39%
7°C
20%
8°C
21%
9°C
21%
10°C
21%
11°C
20%
12°C
20%
13°C
39%
14°C
39%
15°C or higher
47%
5°C or below 47%
15°C or higher 47%
6°C 39%
13°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
5°C or below
$10 Vol.
47%
6°C
$10 Vol.
39%
7°C
$0 Vol.
20%
8°C
$0 Vol.
21%
9°C
$0 Vol.
21%
10°C
$0 Vol.
21%
11°C
$0 Vol.
20%
12°C
$0 Vol.
20%
13°C
$10 Vol.
39%
14°C
$10 Vol.
39%
15°C or higher
$10 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies like ECMWF and GFS indicate Ankara's minimum temperature on September 15 will most likely fall between 8–13°C under clear to partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds. This central range produces closely matched trader odds near 49% for both the ≤5°C and ≥15°C outcomes, reflecting residual uncertainty in boundary-layer cooling rates, dew point depressions, and possible subtle warm-air advection. Historical September nighttime minima average 11–14°C, providing context for why extremes remain improbable yet viable if model runs shift with updated observations. Key upcoming inputs include the next 00Z and 12Z model cycles plus local station data from Esenboğa Airport, which will refine the implied probability distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
Volume
$50End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies like ECMWF and GFS indicate Ankara's minimum temperature on September 15 will most likely fall between 8–13°C under clear to partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds. This central range produces closely matched trader odds near 49% for both the ≤5°C and ≥15°C outcomes, reflecting residual uncertainty in boundary-layer cooling rates, dew point depressions, and possible subtle warm-air advection. Historical September nighttime minima average 11–14°C, providing context for why extremes remain improbable yet viable if model runs shift with updated observations. Key upcoming inputs include the next 00Z and 12Z model cycles plus local station data from Esenboğa Airport, which will refine the implied probability distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$50End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies like ECMWF and GFS indicate Ankara's minimum temperature on September 15 will most likely fall between 8–13°C under clear to partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds. This central range produces closely matched trader odds near 49% for both the ≤5°C and ≥15°C outcomes, reflecting residual uncertainty in boundary-layer cooling rates, dew point depressions, and possible subtle warm-air advection. Historical September nighttime minima average 11–14°C, providing context for why extremes remain improbable yet viable if model runs shift with updated observations. Key upcoming inputs include the next 00Z and 12Z model cycles plus local station data from Esenboğa Airport, which will refine the implied probability distribution ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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