Persistent high pressure and southerly flow are keeping overnight lows in Austin in the mid-70s for September 15, with National Weather Service forecasts showing 76–78°F under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and dew points near 70°F. This setup limits radiational cooling, sustaining elevated minimum temperatures despite seasonal norms closer to 68°F. Trader sentiment reflects this warm baseline, with near-even odds on 88°F+ highs versus sub-70°F lows, while narrower buckets around 74–77°F capture model consensus. Minor shifts in cloud cover, wind speed, or Gulf moisture could alter the exact low by 2–3°F ahead of final observations, with updated NWS guidance and model runs providing the next key signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Austin on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Austin on September 15?
88°F or higher 93%
69°F or below 43%
82-83°F 38%
84-85°F 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
69°F or below
43%
70-71°F
20%
72-73°F
20%
74-75°F
24%
76-77°F
24%
78-79°F
21%
80-81°F
20%
82-83°F
38%
84-85°F
38%
86-87°F
38%
88°F or higher
93%
88°F or higher 93%
69°F or below 43%
82-83°F 38%
84-85°F 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
69°F or below
$0 Vol.
43%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
20%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
20%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
24%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
24%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
21%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
20%
82-83°F
$10 Vol.
38%
84-85°F
$10 Vol.
38%
86-87°F
$10 Vol.
38%
88°F or higher
$10 Vol.
93%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure and southerly flow are keeping overnight lows in Austin in the mid-70s for September 15, with National Weather Service forecasts showing 76–78°F under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and dew points near 70°F. This setup limits radiational cooling, sustaining elevated minimum temperatures despite seasonal norms closer to 68°F. Trader sentiment reflects this warm baseline, with near-even odds on 88°F+ highs versus sub-70°F lows, while narrower buckets around 74–77°F capture model consensus. Minor shifts in cloud cover, wind speed, or Gulf moisture could alter the exact low by 2–3°F ahead of final observations, with updated NWS guidance and model runs providing the next key signals.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ET
Volume
$40End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure and southerly flow are keeping overnight lows in Austin in the mid-70s for September 15, with National Weather Service forecasts showing 76–78°F under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and dew points near 70°F. This setup limits radiational cooling, sustaining elevated minimum temperatures despite seasonal norms closer to 68°F. Trader sentiment reflects this warm baseline, with near-even odds on 88°F+ highs versus sub-70°F lows, while narrower buckets around 74–77°F capture model consensus. Minor shifts in cloud cover, wind speed, or Gulf moisture could alter the exact low by 2–3°F ahead of final observations, with updated NWS guidance and model runs providing the next key signals.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$40End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent high pressure and southerly flow are keeping overnight lows in Austin in the mid-70s for September 15, with National Weather Service forecasts showing 76–78°F under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and dew points near 70°F. This setup limits radiational cooling, sustaining elevated minimum temperatures despite seasonal norms closer to 68°F. Trader sentiment reflects this warm baseline, with near-even odds on 88°F+ highs versus sub-70°F lows, while narrower buckets around 74–77°F capture model consensus. Minor shifts in cloud cover, wind speed, or Gulf moisture could alter the exact low by 2–3°F ahead of final observations, with updated NWS guidance and model runs providing the next key signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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