Current short-term forecast models from sources like the GFS and regional analyses indicate predominantly clear skies over Cape Town for September 7, with expected overnight lows near 15–16°C amid light winds and high pressure. This setup typically limits nocturnal radiative cooling under the influence of the cool Benguela Current and local topography around Table Mountain, reducing the chance of sharp drops below 12°C. However, variable southeasterly flows or shifts in steering patterns could enhance or suppress minimum temperatures, creating genuine model spread that supports the closely matched market-implied odds between sub-10°C and 19°C+ outcomes. Updated runs from the South African Weather Service and global ensembles in the next 48 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Cape Town on September 7?
Lowest temperature in Cape Town on September 7?
19°C or higher 69%
11°C 49%
15°C 49%
9°C or below 32%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
9°C or below
32%
10°C
21%
11°C
49%
12°C
26%
13°C
28%
14°C
28%
15°C
49%
16°C
25%
17°C
25%
18°C
19%
19°C or higher
69%
19°C or higher 69%
11°C 49%
15°C 49%
9°C or below 32%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
9°C or below
$0 Vol.
32%
10°C
$0 Vol.
21%
11°C
$0 Vol.
49%
12°C
$0 Vol.
26%
13°C
$0 Vol.
28%
14°C
$0 Vol.
28%
15°C
$0 Vol.
49%
16°C
$0 Vol.
25%
17°C
$0 Vol.
25%
18°C
$0 Vol.
19%
19°C or higher
$0 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-term forecast models from sources like the GFS and regional analyses indicate predominantly clear skies over Cape Town for September 7, with expected overnight lows near 15–16°C amid light winds and high pressure. This setup typically limits nocturnal radiative cooling under the influence of the cool Benguela Current and local topography around Table Mountain, reducing the chance of sharp drops below 12°C. However, variable southeasterly flows or shifts in steering patterns could enhance or suppress minimum temperatures, creating genuine model spread that supports the closely matched market-implied odds between sub-10°C and 19°C+ outcomes. Updated runs from the South African Weather Service and global ensembles in the next 48 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-term forecast models from sources like the GFS and regional analyses indicate predominantly clear skies over Cape Town for September 7, with expected overnight lows near 15–16°C amid light winds and high pressure. This setup typically limits nocturnal radiative cooling under the influence of the cool Benguela Current and local topography around Table Mountain, reducing the chance of sharp drops below 12°C. However, variable southeasterly flows or shifts in steering patterns could enhance or suppress minimum temperatures, creating genuine model spread that supports the closely matched market-implied odds between sub-10°C and 19°C+ outcomes. Updated runs from the South African Weather Service and global ensembles in the next 48 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-term forecast models from sources like the GFS and regional analyses indicate predominantly clear skies over Cape Town for September 7, with expected overnight lows near 15–16°C amid light winds and high pressure. This setup typically limits nocturnal radiative cooling under the influence of the cool Benguela Current and local topography around Table Mountain, reducing the chance of sharp drops below 12°C. However, variable southeasterly flows or shifts in steering patterns could enhance or suppress minimum temperatures, creating genuine model spread that supports the closely matched market-implied odds between sub-10°C and 19°C+ outcomes. Updated runs from the South African Weather Service and global ensembles in the next 48 hours will likely refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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