**Official National Weather Service forecasts and supporting model guidance for Houston on September 9 point to an overnight low in the upper 70s, driven by persistent high humidity, southerly flow, and afternoon thunderstorm activity that limits overnight radiative cooling.** These conditions keep minimum temperatures elevated relative to the early-September climatological average of around 74°F. Market-implied probabilities cluster on 78–81°F because small differences in cloud cover timing, storm outflow boundaries, or dewpoint values can shift the exact low by a degree or two; higher-end outcomes reflect scenarios with stronger moisture and reduced cooling, while lower bins capture any unexpected clearing. Updated model runs and the next NWS discussion will provide the key data releases traders are watching before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Houston on September 9?
Lowest temperature in Houston on September 9?
78-79°F 54%
90°F or higher 52%
80-81°F 27%
71°F or below 23%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
71°F or below
23%
72-73°F
22%
74-75°F
19%
76-77°F
27%
78-79°F
42%
80-81°F
34%
82-83°F
22%
84-85°F
5%
86-87°F
8%
88-89°F
12%
90°F or higher
52%
78-79°F 54%
90°F or higher 52%
80-81°F 27%
71°F or below 23%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
71°F or below
$44 Vol.
23%
72-73°F
$12 Vol.
22%
74-75°F
$12 Vol.
19%
76-77°F
$12 Vol.
27%
78-79°F
$61 Vol.
42%
80-81°F
$111 Vol.
34%
82-83°F
$25 Vol.
22%
84-85°F
$29 Vol.
5%
86-87°F
$112 Vol.
8%
88-89°F
$52 Vol.
12%
90°F or higher
$30 Vol.
52%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official National Weather Service forecasts and supporting model guidance for Houston on September 9 point to an overnight low in the upper 70s, driven by persistent high humidity, southerly flow, and afternoon thunderstorm activity that limits overnight radiative cooling.**
These conditions keep minimum temperatures elevated relative to the early-September climatological average of around 74°F. Market-implied probabilities cluster on 78–81°F because small differences in cloud cover timing, storm outflow boundaries, or dewpoint values can shift the exact low by a degree or two; higher-end outcomes reflect scenarios with stronger moisture and reduced cooling, while lower bins capture any unexpected clearing. Updated model runs and the next NWS discussion will provide the key data releases traders are watching before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 3:30 AM ET
Volume
$500End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 3:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official National Weather Service forecasts and supporting model guidance for Houston on September 9 point to an overnight low in the upper 70s, driven by persistent high humidity, southerly flow, and afternoon thunderstorm activity that limits overnight radiative cooling.**
These conditions keep minimum temperatures elevated relative to the early-September climatological average of around 74°F. Market-implied probabilities cluster on 78–81°F because small differences in cloud cover timing, storm outflow boundaries, or dewpoint values can shift the exact low by a degree or two; higher-end outcomes reflect scenarios with stronger moisture and reduced cooling, while lower bins capture any unexpected clearing. Updated model runs and the next NWS discussion will provide the key data releases traders are watching before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$500End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 3:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official National Weather Service forecasts and supporting model guidance for Houston on September 9 point to an overnight low in the upper 70s, driven by persistent high humidity, southerly flow, and afternoon thunderstorm activity that limits overnight radiative cooling.** These conditions keep minimum temperatures elevated relative to the early-September climatological average of around 74°F. Market-implied probabilities cluster on 78–81°F because small differences in cloud cover timing, storm outflow boundaries, or dewpoint values can shift the exact low by a degree or two; higher-end outcomes reflect scenarios with stronger moisture and reduced cooling, while lower bins capture any unexpected clearing. Updated model runs and the next NWS discussion will provide the key data releases traders are watching before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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