Latest Met Office ensemble forecasts position 11°C as the modal outcome for London's overnight low on September 21, reflected in its 39.5% implied probability, as high pressure and light winds favor radiative cooling under clear skies. Surrounding probabilities cluster around 10–12°C because model runs show limited spread in boundary-layer temperatures amid typical early-autumn conditions, with sea-surface temperatures in the North Sea still near seasonal norms. Historical September minima in central London average 10–12°C, providing context for why lower or higher bins carry smaller market weight. Updated model guidance and any last-minute changes in cloud cover or wind will be the key near-term drivers ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on September 21?
Lowest temperature in London on September 21?
11°C 40%
8°C or below 33%
10°C 18%
12°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
8°C or below
19%
9°C
3%
10°C
18%
11°C
40%
12°C
14%
13°C
6%
14°C
8%
15°C
2%
16°C
2%
17°C
2%
18°C or higher
2%
11°C 40%
8°C or below 33%
10°C 18%
12°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 21, 2026
8°C or below
$315 Vol.
19%
9°C
$214 Vol.
3%
10°C
$672 Vol.
18%
11°C
$665 Vol.
40%
12°C
$842 Vol.
14%
13°C
$144 Vol.
6%
14°C
$32 Vol.
8%
15°C
$0 Vol.
2%
16°C
$0 Vol.
2%
17°C
$0 Vol.
2%
18°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest Met Office ensemble forecasts position 11°C as the modal outcome for London's overnight low on September 21, reflected in its 39.5% implied probability, as high pressure and light winds favor radiative cooling under clear skies. Surrounding probabilities cluster around 10–12°C because model runs show limited spread in boundary-layer temperatures amid typical early-autumn conditions, with sea-surface temperatures in the North Sea still near seasonal norms. Historical September minima in central London average 10–12°C, providing context for why lower or higher bins carry smaller market weight. Updated model guidance and any last-minute changes in cloud cover or wind will be the key near-term drivers ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$2,883End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest Met Office ensemble forecasts position 11°C as the modal outcome for London's overnight low on September 21, reflected in its 39.5% implied probability, as high pressure and light winds favor radiative cooling under clear skies. Surrounding probabilities cluster around 10–12°C because model runs show limited spread in boundary-layer temperatures amid typical early-autumn conditions, with sea-surface temperatures in the North Sea still near seasonal norms. Historical September minima in central London average 10–12°C, providing context for why lower or higher bins carry smaller market weight. Updated model guidance and any last-minute changes in cloud cover or wind will be the key near-term drivers ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,883End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest Met Office ensemble forecasts position 11°C as the modal outcome for London's overnight low on September 21, reflected in its 39.5% implied probability, as high pressure and light winds favor radiative cooling under clear skies. Surrounding probabilities cluster around 10–12°C because model runs show limited spread in boundary-layer temperatures amid typical early-autumn conditions, with sea-surface temperatures in the North Sea still near seasonal norms. Historical September minima in central London average 10–12°C, providing context for why lower or higher bins carry smaller market weight. Updated model guidance and any last-minute changes in cloud cover or wind will be the key near-term drivers ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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