**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Los Angeles on September 6, 2026, reflects substantial forecast uncertainty from an approaching weather system, with market-implied odds clustered around 68–73°F (roughly 25–30% each) and meaningful probability on cooler outcomes near 60–61°F.** Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models show overnight lows varying from the mid-60s°F to around 70°F, driven by a trough and potential remnants of tropical moisture (linked to systems like Hurricane Marie) increasing clouds, humidity, and showers. This pattern reduces nocturnal radiative cooling compared to clear, dry conditions typical for early September, when the climatological average low is approximately 64°F. Cloud cover and onshore flow from the marine layer, combined with light winds, tend to elevate minimum temperatures, while any clearing or stronger offshore influence could allow greater cooling toward the lower end of the distribution. Model spread on precipitation timing and intensity creates the close probabilities across the 68–73°F range and support for 60–61°F scenarios. New model runs and updated NWS guidance ahead of the overnight period will likely drive the sharpest market moves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Los Angeles on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Los Angeles on September 6?
60-61°F 49%
74-75°F 49%
62-63°F 47%
59°F or below 42%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
59°F or below
42%
60-61°F
49%
62-63°F
47%
64-65°F
25%
66-67°F
8%
68-69°F
27%
70-71°F
25%
72-73°F
27%
74-75°F
49%
76-77°F
<1%
78°F or higher
<1%
60-61°F 49%
74-75°F 49%
62-63°F 47%
59°F or below 42%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
59°F or below
$5 Vol.
42%
60-61°F
$3 Vol.
49%
62-63°F
$3 Vol.
47%
64-65°F
$5 Vol.
25%
66-67°F
$23 Vol.
8%
68-69°F
$172 Vol.
27%
70-71°F
$67 Vol.
25%
72-73°F
$273 Vol.
27%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
49%
76-77°F
$788 Vol.
<1%
78°F or higher
$667 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Los Angeles on September 6, 2026, reflects substantial forecast uncertainty from an approaching weather system, with market-implied odds clustered around 68–73°F (roughly 25–30% each) and meaningful probability on cooler outcomes near 60–61°F.**
Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models show overnight lows varying from the mid-60s°F to around 70°F, driven by a trough and potential remnants of tropical moisture (linked to systems like Hurricane Marie) increasing clouds, humidity, and showers. This pattern reduces nocturnal radiative cooling compared to clear, dry conditions typical for early September, when the climatological average low is approximately 64°F. Cloud cover and onshore flow from the marine layer, combined with light winds, tend to elevate minimum temperatures, while any clearing or stronger offshore influence could allow greater cooling toward the lower end of the distribution. Model spread on precipitation timing and intensity creates the close probabilities across the 68–73°F range and support for 60–61°F scenarios. New model runs and updated NWS guidance ahead of the overnight period will likely drive the sharpest market moves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$2,007End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klaxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Los Angeles on September 6, 2026, reflects substantial forecast uncertainty from an approaching weather system, with market-implied odds clustered around 68–73°F (roughly 25–30% each) and meaningful probability on cooler outcomes near 60–61°F.**
Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models show overnight lows varying from the mid-60s°F to around 70°F, driven by a trough and potential remnants of tropical moisture (linked to systems like Hurricane Marie) increasing clouds, humidity, and showers. This pattern reduces nocturnal radiative cooling compared to clear, dry conditions typical for early September, when the climatological average low is approximately 64°F. Cloud cover and onshore flow from the marine layer, combined with light winds, tend to elevate minimum temperatures, while any clearing or stronger offshore influence could allow greater cooling toward the lower end of the distribution. Model spread on precipitation timing and intensity creates the close probabilities across the 68–73°F range and support for 60–61°F scenarios. New model runs and updated NWS guidance ahead of the overnight period will likely drive the sharpest market moves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klax
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,007End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klaxResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Los Angeles on September 6, 2026, reflects substantial forecast uncertainty from an approaching weather system, with market-implied odds clustered around 68–73°F (roughly 25–30% each) and meaningful probability on cooler outcomes near 60–61°F.** Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models show overnight lows varying from the mid-60s°F to around 70°F, driven by a trough and potential remnants of tropical moisture (linked to systems like Hurricane Marie) increasing clouds, humidity, and showers. This pattern reduces nocturnal radiative cooling compared to clear, dry conditions typical for early September, when the climatological average low is approximately 64°F. Cloud cover and onshore flow from the marine layer, combined with light winds, tend to elevate minimum temperatures, while any clearing or stronger offshore influence could allow greater cooling toward the lower end of the distribution. Model spread on precipitation timing and intensity creates the close probabilities across the 68–73°F range and support for 60–61°F scenarios. New model runs and updated NWS guidance ahead of the overnight period will likely drive the sharpest market moves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions