Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (46.5%) to an overnight low of 61°F or below for August 1 in NYC, with the remaining probability distributed across 62–79°F bins and negligible odds above 80°F. This positioning reflects uncertainty in the strength of radiational cooling under the current late-July pattern, where a cooler, drier airmass and potential clear skies could allow temperatures to drop below the early-August climatological average low of 67–70°F. Key differentiating factors include forecast dew points, wind speeds, and cloud cover overnight, as lighter winds and lower humidity enhance surface heat loss while any residual moisture or clouds would limit the decline. Official National Weather Service guidance and updated model runs over the next 24 hours will clarify whether conditions support the cooler tail of the distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 1?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 1?
72-73°F 34%
70-71°F 26%
74-75°F 24%
68-69°F 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 1, 2026
61°F or below
1%
62-63°F
2%
64-65°F
2%
66-67°F
8%
68-69°F
12%
70-71°F
26%
72-73°F
34%
74-75°F
24%
76-77°F
9%
78-79°F
8%
80°F or higher
<1%
72-73°F 34%
70-71°F 26%
74-75°F 24%
68-69°F 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 1, 2026
61°F or below
$31 Vol.
1%
62-63°F
$25 Vol.
2%
64-65°F
$146 Vol.
2%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
8%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
12%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
26%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
34%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
24%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
9%
78-79°F
$125 Vol.
8%
80°F or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (46.5%) to an overnight low of 61°F or below for August 1 in NYC, with the remaining probability distributed across 62–79°F bins and negligible odds above 80°F. This positioning reflects uncertainty in the strength of radiational cooling under the current late-July pattern, where a cooler, drier airmass and potential clear skies could allow temperatures to drop below the early-August climatological average low of 67–70°F. Key differentiating factors include forecast dew points, wind speeds, and cloud cover overnight, as lighter winds and lower humidity enhance surface heat loss while any residual moisture or clouds would limit the decline. Official National Weather Service guidance and updated model runs over the next 24 hours will clarify whether conditions support the cooler tail of the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$327End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (46.5%) to an overnight low of 61°F or below for August 1 in NYC, with the remaining probability distributed across 62–79°F bins and negligible odds above 80°F. This positioning reflects uncertainty in the strength of radiational cooling under the current late-July pattern, where a cooler, drier airmass and potential clear skies could allow temperatures to drop below the early-August climatological average low of 67–70°F. Key differentiating factors include forecast dew points, wind speeds, and cloud cover overnight, as lighter winds and lower humidity enhance surface heat loss while any residual moisture or clouds would limit the decline. Official National Weather Service guidance and updated model runs over the next 24 hours will clarify whether conditions support the cooler tail of the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$327End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (46.5%) to an overnight low of 61°F or below for August 1 in NYC, with the remaining probability distributed across 62–79°F bins and negligible odds above 80°F. This positioning reflects uncertainty in the strength of radiational cooling under the current late-July pattern, where a cooler, drier airmass and potential clear skies could allow temperatures to drop below the early-August climatological average low of 67–70°F. Key differentiating factors include forecast dew points, wind speeds, and cloud cover overnight, as lighter winds and lower humidity enhance surface heat loss while any residual moisture or clouds would limit the decline. Official National Weather Service guidance and updated model runs over the next 24 hours will clarify whether conditions support the cooler tail of the distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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