Recent official forecasts for Qingdao on September 7 project a daily minimum near 19–22 °C under clear to partly cloudy skies and light northeast-to-north winds of 4–8 m/s. This range reflects the balance between radiative cooling under high pressure and mild maritime moderation from the Yellow Sea. Ensemble models show modest spread in overnight low-level stability and wind mixing, which can shift the minimum by 2–3 °C and explain the near-even market split between sub-15 °C and 25 °C+ outcomes. Historical September minima average 18 °C, providing context for the current trader-implied probabilities. Updated numerical guidance and any shift in steering flow ahead of the date remain the key variables to watch.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Qingdao on September 7?
Lowest temperature in Qingdao on September 7?
15°C or below 88%
25°C or higher 87%
16°C 49%
20°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
15°C or below
88%
16°C
49%
17°C
26%
18°C
34%
19°C
27%
20°C
49%
21°C
49%
22°C
49%
23°C
49%
24°C
49%
25°C or higher
87%
15°C or below 88%
25°C or higher 87%
16°C 49%
20°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
15°C or below
$0 Vol.
88%
16°C
$0 Vol.
49%
17°C
$0 Vol.
26%
18°C
$0 Vol.
34%
19°C
$0 Vol.
27%
20°C
$0 Vol.
49%
21°C
$0 Vol.
49%
22°C
$0 Vol.
49%
23°C
$0 Vol.
49%
24°C
$0 Vol.
49%
25°C or higher
$0 Vol.
87%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts for Qingdao on September 7 project a daily minimum near 19–22 °C under clear to partly cloudy skies and light northeast-to-north winds of 4–8 m/s. This range reflects the balance between radiative cooling under high pressure and mild maritime moderation from the Yellow Sea. Ensemble models show modest spread in overnight low-level stability and wind mixing, which can shift the minimum by 2–3 °C and explain the near-even market split between sub-15 °C and 25 °C+ outcomes. Historical September minima average 18 °C, providing context for the current trader-implied probabilities. Updated numerical guidance and any shift in steering flow ahead of the date remain the key variables to watch.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts for Qingdao on September 7 project a daily minimum near 19–22 °C under clear to partly cloudy skies and light northeast-to-north winds of 4–8 m/s. This range reflects the balance between radiative cooling under high pressure and mild maritime moderation from the Yellow Sea. Ensemble models show modest spread in overnight low-level stability and wind mixing, which can shift the minimum by 2–3 °C and explain the near-even market split between sub-15 °C and 25 °C+ outcomes. Historical September minima average 18 °C, providing context for the current trader-implied probabilities. Updated numerical guidance and any shift in steering flow ahead of the date remain the key variables to watch.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts for Qingdao on September 7 project a daily minimum near 19–22 °C under clear to partly cloudy skies and light northeast-to-north winds of 4–8 m/s. This range reflects the balance between radiative cooling under high pressure and mild maritime moderation from the Yellow Sea. Ensemble models show modest spread in overnight low-level stability and wind mixing, which can shift the minimum by 2–3 °C and explain the near-even market split between sub-15 °C and 25 °C+ outcomes. Historical September minima average 18 °C, providing context for the current trader-implied probabilities. Updated numerical guidance and any shift in steering flow ahead of the date remain the key variables to watch.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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