Forecast models from the National Weather Service and other sources indicate a low near 60°F for San Francisco on August 27, driven by persistent onshore westerly winds of 10-20 mph, mostly cloudy skies, and a moderate marine layer that limits overnight radiative cooling. These conditions align with the market's tight clustering around 58-61°F outcomes. Recent days have featured slightly elevated temperatures and humidity compared to August climatology, reducing the typical drop to the mid-50s. Key uncertainties include exact cloud cover timing and localized variations across the city's hills and waterfront, which can shift the minimum by 2-3°F and explain why no single bin exceeds 35% implied probability. Updated NWS guidance and hourly observations will refine these projections before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on August 27?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on August 27?
60-61°F 51%
54-55°F 49%
58-59°F 29%
56-57°F 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
51°F or below
2%
52-53°F
9%
54-55°F
49%
56-57°F
27%
58-59°F
29%
60-61°F
31%
62-63°F
26%
64-65°F
26%
66-67°F
9%
68-69°F
8%
70°F or higher
1%
60-61°F 51%
54-55°F 49%
58-59°F 29%
56-57°F 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
51°F or below
$42 Vol.
2%
52-53°F
$42 Vol.
9%
54-55°F
$42 Vol.
49%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
27%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
29%
60-61°F
$12 Vol.
31%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
26%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
26%
66-67°F
$47 Vol.
9%
68-69°F
$37 Vol.
8%
70°F or higher
$42 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the National Weather Service and other sources indicate a low near 60°F for San Francisco on August 27, driven by persistent onshore westerly winds of 10-20 mph, mostly cloudy skies, and a moderate marine layer that limits overnight radiative cooling. These conditions align with the market's tight clustering around 58-61°F outcomes. Recent days have featured slightly elevated temperatures and humidity compared to August climatology, reducing the typical drop to the mid-50s. Key uncertainties include exact cloud cover timing and localized variations across the city's hills and waterfront, which can shift the minimum by 2-3°F and explain why no single bin exceeds 35% implied probability. Updated NWS guidance and hourly observations will refine these projections before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$265End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the National Weather Service and other sources indicate a low near 60°F for San Francisco on August 27, driven by persistent onshore westerly winds of 10-20 mph, mostly cloudy skies, and a moderate marine layer that limits overnight radiative cooling. These conditions align with the market's tight clustering around 58-61°F outcomes. Recent days have featured slightly elevated temperatures and humidity compared to August climatology, reducing the typical drop to the mid-50s. Key uncertainties include exact cloud cover timing and localized variations across the city's hills and waterfront, which can shift the minimum by 2-3°F and explain why no single bin exceeds 35% implied probability. Updated NWS guidance and hourly observations will refine these projections before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$265End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from the National Weather Service and other sources indicate a low near 60°F for San Francisco on August 27, driven by persistent onshore westerly winds of 10-20 mph, mostly cloudy skies, and a moderate marine layer that limits overnight radiative cooling. These conditions align with the market's tight clustering around 58-61°F outcomes. Recent days have featured slightly elevated temperatures and humidity compared to August climatology, reducing the typical drop to the mid-50s. Key uncertainties include exact cloud cover timing and localized variations across the city's hills and waterfront, which can shift the minimum by 2-3°F and explain why no single bin exceeds 35% implied probability. Updated NWS guidance and hourly observations will refine these projections before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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