**Consistent meteorological forecasts from multiple sources indicate a minimum temperature of 23°C in Shanghai on September 11, 2026, supporting the market's 97% implied probability for that outcome.** Official and ensemble model guidance shows overnight lows stabilizing near this level under mostly cloudy skies, light northeast winds, and high humidity typical of early autumn transition in the region. Historical September baselines for Shanghai place average daily minima around 22–24°C, aligning with current observations and short-term model runs. While forecast uncertainty exists due to potential localized variations in cloud cover or precipitation timing, the strong consensus across agencies leaves little room for deviations below 22°C or above 24°C. Traders appear to weigh the high reliability of near-term numerical weather prediction for this threshold, with new model updates or real-time station readings as the primary near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on September 11?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on September 11?
23°C 97%
21°C 4%
22°C 3%
19°C or below <1%
$13,459 Vol.
$13,459 Vol.
Sep 11, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
4%
22°C
3%
23°C
97%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
23°C 97%
21°C 4%
22°C 3%
19°C or below <1%
$13,459 Vol.
$13,459 Vol.
Sep 11, 2026
19°C or below
$535 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$832 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$674 Vol.
4%
22°C
$2,402 Vol.
3%
23°C
$5,060 Vol.
97%
24°C
$2,360 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$880 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$141 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$191 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$201 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$183 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Consistent meteorological forecasts from multiple sources indicate a minimum temperature of 23°C in Shanghai on September 11, 2026, supporting the market's 97% implied probability for that outcome.** Official and ensemble model guidance shows overnight lows stabilizing near this level under mostly cloudy skies, light northeast winds, and high humidity typical of early autumn transition in the region. Historical September baselines for Shanghai place average daily minima around 22–24°C, aligning with current observations and short-term model runs. While forecast uncertainty exists due to potential localized variations in cloud cover or precipitation timing, the strong consensus across agencies leaves little room for deviations below 22°C or above 24°C. Traders appear to weigh the high reliability of near-term numerical weather prediction for this threshold, with new model updates or real-time station readings as the primary near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$13,459End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Consistent meteorological forecasts from multiple sources indicate a minimum temperature of 23°C in Shanghai on September 11, 2026, supporting the market's 97% implied probability for that outcome.** Official and ensemble model guidance shows overnight lows stabilizing near this level under mostly cloudy skies, light northeast winds, and high humidity typical of early autumn transition in the region. Historical September baselines for Shanghai place average daily minima around 22–24°C, aligning with current observations and short-term model runs. While forecast uncertainty exists due to potential localized variations in cloud cover or precipitation timing, the strong consensus across agencies leaves little room for deviations below 22°C or above 24°C. Traders appear to weigh the high reliability of near-term numerical weather prediction for this threshold, with new model updates or real-time station readings as the primary near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$13,459End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Consistent meteorological forecasts from multiple sources indicate a minimum temperature of 23°C in Shanghai on September 11, 2026, supporting the market's 97% implied probability for that outcome.** Official and ensemble model guidance shows overnight lows stabilizing near this level under mostly cloudy skies, light northeast winds, and high humidity typical of early autumn transition in the region. Historical September baselines for Shanghai place average daily minima around 22–24°C, aligning with current observations and short-term model runs. While forecast uncertainty exists due to potential localized variations in cloud cover or precipitation timing, the strong consensus across agencies leaves little room for deviations below 22°C or above 24°C. Traders appear to weigh the high reliability of near-term numerical weather prediction for this threshold, with new model updates or real-time station readings as the primary near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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