Trader sentiment centers on the narrow spread between 76-77°F and 78-79°F outcomes, each at 39% implied probability, reflecting model consensus for a typical late-summer overnight low in Miami amid persistent subtropical moisture and light southerly flow. Official forecasts from NOAA and GFS runs indicate highs near 87-89°F with scattered thunderstorms, followed by partial clearing that allows only modest radiational cooling under high humidity near 85% and dew points in the upper 70s. Light winds under 5 mph and lingering cloud cover from Atlantic moisture limit temperature drops, aligning with historical September minima around 77°F. The balanced odds capture uncertainty in exact timing of any evening convection or boundary-layer decoupling, while lower-probability bins below 75°F remain discounted absent a stronger frontal intrusion. Updated model runs and NHC guidance ahead of the overnight period will refine these ranges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Miami on September 13?
Lowest temperature in Miami on September 13?
78-79°F 39%
76-77°F 39%
74-75°F 17%
84-85°F 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
71°F or below
4%
72-73°F
7%
74-75°F
17%
76-77°F
39%
78-79°F
39%
80-81°F
7%
82-83°F
9%
84-85°F
12%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
<1%
90°F or higher
<1%
78-79°F 39%
76-77°F 39%
74-75°F 17%
84-85°F 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
71°F or below
$0 Vol.
4%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
7%
74-75°F
$17 Vol.
17%
76-77°F
$219 Vol.
39%
78-79°F
$15 Vol.
39%
80-81°F
$231 Vol.
7%
82-83°F
$7 Vol.
9%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
12%
86-87°F
$12 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$162 Vol.
<1%
90°F or higher
$162 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment centers on the narrow spread between 76-77°F and 78-79°F outcomes, each at 39% implied probability, reflecting model consensus for a typical late-summer overnight low in Miami amid persistent subtropical moisture and light southerly flow. Official forecasts from NOAA and GFS runs indicate highs near 87-89°F with scattered thunderstorms, followed by partial clearing that allows only modest radiational cooling under high humidity near 85% and dew points in the upper 70s. Light winds under 5 mph and lingering cloud cover from Atlantic moisture limit temperature drops, aligning with historical September minima around 77°F. The balanced odds capture uncertainty in exact timing of any evening convection or boundary-layer decoupling, while lower-probability bins below 75°F remain discounted absent a stronger frontal intrusion. Updated model runs and NHC guidance ahead of the overnight period will refine these ranges.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$825End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment centers on the narrow spread between 76-77°F and 78-79°F outcomes, each at 39% implied probability, reflecting model consensus for a typical late-summer overnight low in Miami amid persistent subtropical moisture and light southerly flow. Official forecasts from NOAA and GFS runs indicate highs near 87-89°F with scattered thunderstorms, followed by partial clearing that allows only modest radiational cooling under high humidity near 85% and dew points in the upper 70s. Light winds under 5 mph and lingering cloud cover from Atlantic moisture limit temperature drops, aligning with historical September minima around 77°F. The balanced odds capture uncertainty in exact timing of any evening convection or boundary-layer decoupling, while lower-probability bins below 75°F remain discounted absent a stronger frontal intrusion. Updated model runs and NHC guidance ahead of the overnight period will refine these ranges.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$825End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment centers on the narrow spread between 76-77°F and 78-79°F outcomes, each at 39% implied probability, reflecting model consensus for a typical late-summer overnight low in Miami amid persistent subtropical moisture and light southerly flow. Official forecasts from NOAA and GFS runs indicate highs near 87-89°F with scattered thunderstorms, followed by partial clearing that allows only modest radiational cooling under high humidity near 85% and dew points in the upper 70s. Light winds under 5 mph and lingering cloud cover from Atlantic moisture limit temperature drops, aligning with historical September minima around 77°F. The balanced odds capture uncertainty in exact timing of any evening convection or boundary-layer decoupling, while lower-probability bins below 75°F remain discounted absent a stronger frontal intrusion. Updated model runs and NHC guidance ahead of the overnight period will refine these ranges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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