Recent Met Office guidance and supporting model runs point to a maximum of 22–23 °C in London on September 11 under mostly cloudy skies with light westerly winds and minimal precipitation risk. These conditions align with the current market-implied probabilities favoring 23 °C and 22 °C, reflecting the narrow range between official daytime highs and typical diurnal variation in mid-September. Ensemble forecasts show limited spread around this mild outcome, consistent with seasonal norms and the absence of strong warm or cool advection. Traders appear to be weighting the consensus forecast heavily while discounting lower-probability outliers, with any upward revision to 24 °C or higher requiring an unexpected late surge in insolation or model shift ahead of tomorrow’s resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in London on September 11?
Highest temperature in London on September 11?
23°C 46%
22°C 37%
24°C 11%
21°C 6%
NEW
$11,039 Vol.
NEW
$11,039 Vol.
Sep 11, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
2%
21°C
6%
22°C
37%
23°C
46%
24°C
11%
25°C
2%
26°C or higher
<1%
23°C 46%
22°C 37%
24°C 11%
21°C 6%
NEW
$11,039 Vol.
NEW
$11,039 Vol.
Sep 11, 2026
16°C or below
$110 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$197 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$218 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$321 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$339 Vol.
2%
21°C
$2,499 Vol.
6%
22°C
$2,638 Vol.
37%
23°C
$2,672 Vol.
46%
24°C
$630 Vol.
11%
25°C
$672 Vol.
2%
26°C or higher
$741 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office guidance and supporting model runs point to a maximum of 22–23 °C in London on September 11 under mostly cloudy skies with light westerly winds and minimal precipitation risk. These conditions align with the current market-implied probabilities favoring 23 °C and 22 °C, reflecting the narrow range between official daytime highs and typical diurnal variation in mid-September. Ensemble forecasts show limited spread around this mild outcome, consistent with seasonal norms and the absence of strong warm or cool advection. Traders appear to be weighting the consensus forecast heavily while discounting lower-probability outliers, with any upward revision to 24 °C or higher requiring an unexpected late surge in insolation or model shift ahead of tomorrow’s resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$11,039End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office guidance and supporting model runs point to a maximum of 22–23 °C in London on September 11 under mostly cloudy skies with light westerly winds and minimal precipitation risk. These conditions align with the current market-implied probabilities favoring 23 °C and 22 °C, reflecting the narrow range between official daytime highs and typical diurnal variation in mid-September. Ensemble forecasts show limited spread around this mild outcome, consistent with seasonal norms and the absence of strong warm or cool advection. Traders appear to be weighting the consensus forecast heavily while discounting lower-probability outliers, with any upward revision to 24 °C or higher requiring an unexpected late surge in insolation or model shift ahead of tomorrow’s resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,039End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Met Office guidance and supporting model runs point to a maximum of 22–23 °C in London on September 11 under mostly cloudy skies with light westerly winds and minimal precipitation risk. These conditions align with the current market-implied probabilities favoring 23 °C and 22 °C, reflecting the narrow range between official daytime highs and typical diurnal variation in mid-September. Ensemble forecasts show limited spread around this mild outcome, consistent with seasonal norms and the absence of strong warm or cool advection. Traders appear to be weighting the consensus forecast heavily while discounting lower-probability outliers, with any upward revision to 24 °C or higher requiring an unexpected late surge in insolation or model shift ahead of tomorrow’s resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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