The tight clustering of implied probabilities around 26–28°C for Taipei’s lowest temperature on August 27 reflects lingering uncertainty in short-range ensemble forecasts, particularly regarding the strength of nocturnal radiative cooling under subtropical summer conditions. Key variables include variable cloud cover, light wind speeds that limit mixing, and high humidity suppressing temperature drops, all of which can shift the overnight minimum by 1–2°C across model runs from agencies such as Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration and global systems like ECMWF. Urban heat island effects in the densely built city further moderate extremes compared to surrounding rural areas. Updated model guidance and official bulletins expected overnight will likely refine the outlook ahead of resolution based on verified station readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Taipei on August 27?
Lowest temperature in Taipei on August 27?
26°C 29%
28°C 27%
27°C 26%
25°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
22°C or below
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
3%
25°C
26%
26°C
29%
27°C
26%
28°C
27%
29°C
26%
30°C
8%
31°C
8%
32°C or higher
6%
26°C 29%
28°C 27%
27°C 26%
25°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
22°C or below
$157 Vol.
1%
23°C
$15 Vol.
1%
24°C
$30 Vol.
3%
25°C
$0 Vol.
26%
26°C
$0 Vol.
29%
27°C
$0 Vol.
26%
28°C
$0 Vol.
27%
29°C
$5 Vol.
26%
30°C
$63 Vol.
8%
31°C
$5 Vol.
8%
32°C or higher
$27 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The tight clustering of implied probabilities around 26–28°C for Taipei’s lowest temperature on August 27 reflects lingering uncertainty in short-range ensemble forecasts, particularly regarding the strength of nocturnal radiative cooling under subtropical summer conditions. Key variables include variable cloud cover, light wind speeds that limit mixing, and high humidity suppressing temperature drops, all of which can shift the overnight minimum by 1–2°C across model runs from agencies such as Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration and global systems like ECMWF. Urban heat island effects in the densely built city further moderate extremes compared to surrounding rural areas. Updated model guidance and official bulletins expected overnight will likely refine the outlook ahead of resolution based on verified station readings.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$302End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The tight clustering of implied probabilities around 26–28°C for Taipei’s lowest temperature on August 27 reflects lingering uncertainty in short-range ensemble forecasts, particularly regarding the strength of nocturnal radiative cooling under subtropical summer conditions. Key variables include variable cloud cover, light wind speeds that limit mixing, and high humidity suppressing temperature drops, all of which can shift the overnight minimum by 1–2°C across model runs from agencies such as Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration and global systems like ECMWF. Urban heat island effects in the densely built city further moderate extremes compared to surrounding rural areas. Updated model guidance and official bulletins expected overnight will likely refine the outlook ahead of resolution based on verified station readings.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$302End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight clustering of implied probabilities around 26–28°C for Taipei’s lowest temperature on August 27 reflects lingering uncertainty in short-range ensemble forecasts, particularly regarding the strength of nocturnal radiative cooling under subtropical summer conditions. Key variables include variable cloud cover, light wind speeds that limit mixing, and high humidity suppressing temperature drops, all of which can shift the overnight minimum by 1–2°C across model runs from agencies such as Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration and global systems like ECMWF. Urban heat island effects in the densely built city further moderate extremes compared to surrounding rural areas. Updated model guidance and official bulletins expected overnight will likely refine the outlook ahead of resolution based on verified station readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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