Current forecasts from multiple models, including GFS guidance, indicate a low near 15–16°C for Toronto on September 15 under southerly flow and increasing cloud cover that limits overnight radiative cooling. This aligns with seasonal norms around 14°C while keeping the 8°C-or-below and 18°C-or-higher outcomes evenly matched at 45% each. Key variables include the strength of the approaching low-pressure system and any late shifts in wind direction that could allow clearer skies or a brief northerly push. Traders are monitoring updated model runs and official Environment Canada briefings ahead of the resolution window, as small changes in timing or moisture could tip the minimum several degrees in either direction.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Toronto on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on September 15?
8°C or below 85%
18°C or higher 83%
13°C 40%
9°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
8°C or below
85%
9°C
39%
10°C
39%
11°C
39%
12°C
39%
13°C
40%
14°C
30%
15°C
39%
16°C
39%
17°C
39%
18°C or higher
83%
8°C or below 85%
18°C or higher 83%
13°C 40%
9°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
8°C or below
$0 Vol.
85%
9°C
$0 Vol.
39%
10°C
$0 Vol.
39%
11°C
$0 Vol.
39%
12°C
$0 Vol.
39%
13°C
$0 Vol.
40%
14°C
$0 Vol.
30%
15°C
$0 Vol.
39%
16°C
$0 Vol.
39%
17°C
$0 Vol.
39%
18°C or higher
$0 Vol.
83%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models, including GFS guidance, indicate a low near 15–16°C for Toronto on September 15 under southerly flow and increasing cloud cover that limits overnight radiative cooling. This aligns with seasonal norms around 14°C while keeping the 8°C-or-below and 18°C-or-higher outcomes evenly matched at 45% each. Key variables include the strength of the approaching low-pressure system and any late shifts in wind direction that could allow clearer skies or a brief northerly push. Traders are monitoring updated model runs and official Environment Canada briefings ahead of the resolution window, as small changes in timing or moisture could tip the minimum several degrees in either direction.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 1:29 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models, including GFS guidance, indicate a low near 15–16°C for Toronto on September 15 under southerly flow and increasing cloud cover that limits overnight radiative cooling. This aligns with seasonal norms around 14°C while keeping the 8°C-or-below and 18°C-or-higher outcomes evenly matched at 45% each. Key variables include the strength of the approaching low-pressure system and any late shifts in wind direction that could allow clearer skies or a brief northerly push. Traders are monitoring updated model runs and official Environment Canada briefings ahead of the resolution window, as small changes in timing or moisture could tip the minimum several degrees in either direction.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from multiple models, including GFS guidance, indicate a low near 15–16°C for Toronto on September 15 under southerly flow and increasing cloud cover that limits overnight radiative cooling. This aligns with seasonal norms around 14°C while keeping the 8°C-or-below and 18°C-or-higher outcomes evenly matched at 45% each. Key variables include the strength of the approaching low-pressure system and any late shifts in wind direction that could allow clearer skies or a brief northerly push. Traders are monitoring updated model runs and official Environment Canada briefings ahead of the resolution window, as small changes in timing or moisture could tip the minimum several degrees in either direction.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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