The Mato Grosso gubernatorial race remains highly competitive ahead of the October 4 first-round vote, with trader probabilities clustered near even across more than a dozen declared candidates reflecting a fragmented field and substantial undecided voters in recent surveys. Incumbent Otaviano Pivetta (Republicanos) faces challenges from Wellington Fagundes (PL), Natasha Slhessarenko (PSD), Sargento Laudicério (Agir), Rafaell Milas (Missão), Maurício Coelho and others formalized through recent party conventions. Early polling shows modest leads for Fagundes and Pivetta but with no majority support and elevated shares for “none of these” or blank responses. Key dynamics include potential second-round alliances, agricultural policy priorities in the state, and turnout patterns among rural and urban blocs that could consolidate support or keep outcomes fluid until closer to election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSargento Laudicério 46%
Wellington Fagundes 46%
Doutora Natasha 42%
Otaviano Pivetta 42%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Sargento Laudicério
46%
Wellington Fagundes
46%
Doutora Natasha
42%
Otaviano Pivetta
42%
Rafaell Milas
41%
Mauricio Coelho
40%
Sargento Laudicério 46%
Wellington Fagundes 46%
Doutora Natasha 42%
Otaviano Pivetta 42%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Sargento Laudicério
$0 Vol.
46%
Wellington Fagundes
$0 Vol.
46%
Doutora Natasha
$0 Vol.
42%
Otaviano Pivetta
$0 Vol.
42%
Rafaell Milas
$0 Vol.
41%
Mauricio Coelho
$0 Vol.
40%
The Mato Grosso gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Mato Grosso gubernatorial race remains highly competitive ahead of the October 4 first-round vote, with trader probabilities clustered near even across more than a dozen declared candidates reflecting a fragmented field and substantial undecided voters in recent surveys. Incumbent Otaviano Pivetta (Republicanos) faces challenges from Wellington Fagundes (PL), Natasha Slhessarenko (PSD), Sargento Laudicério (Agir), Rafaell Milas (Missão), Maurício Coelho and others formalized through recent party conventions. Early polling shows modest leads for Fagundes and Pivetta but with no majority support and elevated shares for “none of these” or blank responses. Key dynamics include potential second-round alliances, agricultural policy priorities in the state, and turnout patterns among rural and urban blocs that could consolidate support or keep outcomes fluid until closer to election day.
The Mato Grosso gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:34 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Mato Grosso gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Mato Grosso gubernatorial race remains highly competitive ahead of the October 4 first-round vote, with trader probabilities clustered near even across more than a dozen declared candidates reflecting a fragmented field and substantial undecided voters in recent surveys. Incumbent Otaviano Pivetta (Republicanos) faces challenges from Wellington Fagundes (PL), Natasha Slhessarenko (PSD), Sargento Laudicério (Agir), Rafaell Milas (Missão), Maurício Coelho and others formalized through recent party conventions. Early polling shows modest leads for Fagundes and Pivetta but with no majority support and elevated shares for “none of these” or blank responses. Key dynamics include potential second-round alliances, agricultural policy priorities in the state, and turnout patterns among rural and urban blocs that could consolidate support or keep outcomes fluid until closer to election day.
The Mato Grosso gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Mato Grosso gubernatorial race remains highly competitive ahead of the October 4 first-round vote, with trader probabilities clustered near even across more than a dozen declared candidates reflecting a fragmented field and substantial undecided voters in recent surveys. Incumbent Otaviano Pivetta (Republicanos) faces challenges from Wellington Fagundes (PL), Natasha Slhessarenko (PSD), Sargento Laudicério (Agir), Rafaell Milas (Missão), Maurício Coelho and others formalized through recent party conventions. Early polling shows modest leads for Fagundes and Pivetta but with no majority support and elevated shares for “none of these” or blank responses. Key dynamics include potential second-round alliances, agricultural policy priorities in the state, and turnout patterns among rural and urban blocs that could consolidate support or keep outcomes fluid until closer to election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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