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Politics·Democratic Primary

NY-21 Republican Primary Winner

icon for NY-21 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Democratic Primary

NY-21 Republican Primary Winner

$29,908 Vol.

Polymarket

$29,908 Vol.

Anthony Constantino

$17,257 Vol.

Yes

Robert Smullen

$12,652 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Anthony Constantino holds a commanding lead in the NY-21 Republican primary due to President Trump's endorsement, which has energized the party's base in this open-seat contest to succeed Elise Stefanik. As a political outsider and Sticker Mule CEO emphasizing business experience for economic development and manufacturing, Constantino contrasts with state Assemblyman Robert Smullen, who draws support from the state GOP apparatus, Conservative Party, legislative colleagues, and local officials through his legislative record and Marine Corps background. Recent developments include Jim Jordan's campaign stop boosting Constantino, ongoing early voting through June 21, and a series of debates highlighting differences on jobs, energy, and border issues ahead of the June 23 primary. Trader consensus reflects Constantino's momentum from the national endorsement amid a district spanning 15 upstate counties, though Smullen's institutional ties could sustain a narrower path if turnout favors party regulars.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$29,908
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
May 20, 2026, 11:29 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Anthony Constantino holds a commanding lead in the NY-21 Republican primary due to President Trump's endorsement, which has energized the party's base in this open-seat contest to succeed Elise Stefanik. As a political outsider and Sticker Mule CEO emphasizing business experience for economic development and manufacturing, Constantino contrasts with state Assemblyman Robert Smullen, who draws support from the state GOP apparatus, Conservative Party, legislative colleagues, and local officials through his legislative record and Marine Corps background. Recent developments include Jim Jordan's campaign stop boosting Constantino, ongoing early voting through June 21, and a series of debates highlighting differences on jobs, energy, and border issues ahead of the June 23 primary. Trader consensus reflects Constantino's momentum from the national endorsement amid a district spanning 15 upstate counties, though Smullen's institutional ties could sustain a narrower path if turnout favors party regulars.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$29,908
End Date
Jun 23, 2026
Market Opened
May 20, 2026, 11:29 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"NY-21 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Anthony Constantino" at 100%, followed by "Robert Smullen" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "NY-21 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $29.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "NY-21 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NY-21 Republican Primary Winner" is "Anthony Constantino" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Robert Smullen" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NY-21 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.