Trader consensus favors Progressive Bulgaria (PB) securing 85-95+ seats in Bulgaria's 240-seat National Assembly, reflecting recent polls projecting around 90 seats amid the April 19 snap election—the eighth since 2021 following the Zhelyazkov government's December 2025 resignation over budget protests and corruption allegations. A Center for Analysis and Marketing (CAM) survey from April 3-14 showed PB at 32.1% support among decided voters, translating to 90 seats, ahead of GERB (19.4%, 54 seats) and others; similar results from Market LINKS (36.7%) and Sova Harris (33.6%, 94 seats) reinforce this lead on ex-President Rumen Radev's anti-establishment, anti-graft platform. Intensified vote-buying crackdowns since mid-March, with over €1 million seized, add uncertainty to turnout in the proportional representation system requiring a 4% threshold, though no coalition majority appears viable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated95+ 38%
85-89 27%
90-94 17%
80-84 13%
$46,299 Vol.
$46,299 Vol.
<75
3%
75-79
1%
80-84
13%
85-89
27%
90-94
26%
95+
38%
95+ 38%
85-89 27%
90-94 17%
80-84 13%
$46,299 Vol.
$46,299 Vol.
<75
3%
75-79
1%
80-84
13%
85-89
27%
90-94
26%
95+
38%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Progressive Bulgaria (PB) in the next Bulgarian National Assembly (Народно събрание, Narodno săbraniе) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
Market Opened: Mar 27, 2026, 12:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Progressive Bulgaria (PB) in the next Bulgarian National Assembly (Народно събрание, Narodno săbraniе) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Bulgarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Tsentralna Izbiratelna Komisia) (https://www.cik.bg/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors Progressive Bulgaria (PB) securing 85-95+ seats in Bulgaria's 240-seat National Assembly, reflecting recent polls projecting around 90 seats amid the April 19 snap election—the eighth since 2021 following the Zhelyazkov government's December 2025 resignation over budget protests and corruption allegations. A Center for Analysis and Marketing (CAM) survey from April 3-14 showed PB at 32.1% support among decided voters, translating to 90 seats, ahead of GERB (19.4%, 54 seats) and others; similar results from Market LINKS (36.7%) and Sova Harris (33.6%, 94 seats) reinforce this lead on ex-President Rumen Radev's anti-establishment, anti-graft platform. Intensified vote-buying crackdowns since mid-March, with over €1 million seized, add uncertainty to turnout in the proportional representation system requiring a 4% threshold, though no coalition majority appears viable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated

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