The tight race for the 2027 Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay reflects a crowded field of prestige literary and sci-fi adaptations with no dominant frontrunner yet. The Black Ball leads market-implied odds at 35.5% on the strength of its Cannes Best Director win, Spain’s international submission, and Netflix’s expansive campaign for the queer epic spanning generations. The Invite at 26% and The Odyssey at 21.5% follow closely, buoyed by strong early positioning and Christopher Nolan’s established Academy track record. Project Hail Mary, Wildwood, and Dune: Part Three sit in the low single digits, supported by critical consensus and box-office data, while guild precursors, festival screenings, and late-2026 releases will likely clarify momentum ahead of nominations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner
Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner
The Black Ball 36%
The Invite 27%
The Odyssey 22%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth 6.4%
$27,957 Vol.
$27,957 Vol.
Mar 14, 2027
The Black Ball
36%
The Invite
27%
The Odyssey
22%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
6%
All of a Sudden
6%
Wildwood
6%
Project Hail Mary
5%
The Social Reckoning
5%
Dune: Part Three
4%
Ink
4%
Cry to Heaven
1%
Clarissa
1%
Toy Story 5
1%
Saturn Return
1%
The Whisper Man
1%
The Black Ball 36%
The Invite 27%
The Odyssey 22%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth 6.4%
$27,957 Vol.
$27,957 Vol.
Mar 14, 2027
The Black Ball
$15,657 Vol.
36%
The Invite
$5,141 Vol.
27%
The Odyssey
$2,380 Vol.
22%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
$395 Vol.
6%
All of a Sudden
$633 Vol.
6%
Wildwood
$546 Vol.
6%
Project Hail Mary
$480 Vol.
5%
The Social Reckoning
$265 Vol.
5%
Dune: Part Three
$426 Vol.
4%
Ink
$862 Vol.
4%
Cry to Heaven
$221 Vol.
1%
Clarissa
$182 Vol.
1%
Toy Story 5
$343 Vol.
1%
Saturn Return
$218 Vol.
1%
The Whisper Man
$207 Vol.
1%
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The tight race for the 2027 Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay reflects a crowded field of prestige literary and sci-fi adaptations with no dominant frontrunner yet. The Black Ball leads market-implied odds at 35.5% on the strength of its Cannes Best Director win, Spain’s international submission, and Netflix’s expansive campaign for the queer epic spanning generations. The Invite at 26% and The Odyssey at 21.5% follow closely, buoyed by strong early positioning and Christopher Nolan’s established Academy track record. Project Hail Mary, Wildwood, and Dune: Part Three sit in the low single digits, supported by critical consensus and box-office data, while guild precursors, festival screenings, and late-2026 releases will likely clarify momentum ahead of nominations.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 5:09 AM ET
Volume
$27,957End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 5:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The tight race for the 2027 Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay reflects a crowded field of prestige literary and sci-fi adaptations with no dominant frontrunner yet. The Black Ball leads market-implied odds at 35.5% on the strength of its Cannes Best Director win, Spain’s international submission, and Netflix’s expansive campaign for the queer epic spanning generations. The Invite at 26% and The Odyssey at 21.5% follow closely, buoyed by strong early positioning and Christopher Nolan’s established Academy track record. Project Hail Mary, Wildwood, and Dune: Part Three sit in the low single digits, supported by critical consensus and box-office data, while guild precursors, festival screenings, and late-2026 releases will likely clarify momentum ahead of nominations.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$27,957End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 5:09 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight race for the 2027 Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay reflects a crowded field of prestige literary and sci-fi adaptations with no dominant frontrunner yet. The Black Ball leads market-implied odds at 35.5% on the strength of its Cannes Best Director win, Spain’s international submission, and Netflix’s expansive campaign for the queer epic spanning generations. The Invite at 26% and The Odyssey at 21.5% follow closely, buoyed by strong early positioning and Christopher Nolan’s established Academy track record. Project Hail Mary, Wildwood, and Dune: Part Three sit in the low single digits, supported by critical consensus and box-office data, while guild precursors, festival screenings, and late-2026 releases will likely clarify momentum ahead of nominations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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