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icon for Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner

Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner

icon for Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner

Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner

The Odyssey 34%

The Black Ball 32%

Project Hail Mary 27%

All of a Sudden 27%

Polymarket
NEW

The Odyssey 34%

The Black Ball 32%

Project Hail Mary 27%

All of a Sudden 27%

Polymarket
NEW

The Odyssey

$1 Vol.

34%

The Black Ball

$0 Vol.

32%

Project Hail Mary

$0 Vol.

27%

All of a Sudden

$0 Vol.

27%

The Adventures of Cliff Booth

$0 Vol.

26%

The Social Reckoning

$0 Vol.

26%

Cry to Heaven

$0 Vol.

26%

Saturn Return

$0 Vol.

26%

Wildwood

$0 Vol.

25%

The Whisper Man

$0 Vol.

25%

Ink

$0 Vol.

25%

The Invite

$0 Vol.

25%

Clarissa

$0 Vol.

25%

Dune: Part Three

$0 Vol.

19%

Toy Story 5

$100 Vol.

18%

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The Odyssey leads early trader sentiment in the 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay market at 34% implied probability, followed closely by The Social Reckoning, The Black Ball, and All of a Sudden in the low 30s, reflecting Christopher Nolan’s high-profile July 2026 release of the Homer epic and its strong box-office performance alongside established directors like Aaron Sorkin and Ryusuke Hamaguchi on other projects.** Project Hail Mary sits at 27% on the strength of its March 2026 release, 95% critical score, and Ryan Gosling-led sci-fi adaptation, while Dune: Part Three and Toy Story 5 trail lower amid longer development timelines. With the awards season still far off and many 2026 releases pending, the tight clustering around 25–34% underscores uncertainty driven by precursor awards, guild recognition, and late-year critical reception rather than any dominant frontrunner. Traders are watching upcoming guild nominations and festival buzz as key swing factors in this wide-open category.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$101
End Date
Mar 14, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 5:09 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The Odyssey leads early trader sentiment in the 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay market at 34% implied probability, followed closely by The Social Reckoning, The Black Ball, and All of a Sudden in the low 30s, reflecting Christopher Nolan’s high-profile July 2026 release of the Homer epic and its strong box-office performance alongside established directors like Aaron Sorkin and Ryusuke Hamaguchi on other projects.** Project Hail Mary sits at 27% on the strength of its March 2026 release, 95% critical score, and Ryan Gosling-led sci-fi adaptation, while Dune: Part Three and Toy Story 5 trail lower amid longer development timelines. With the awards season still far off and many 2026 releases pending, the tight clustering around 25–34% underscores uncertainty driven by precursor awards, guild recognition, and late-year critical reception rather than any dominant frontrunner. Traders are watching upcoming guild nominations and festival buzz as key swing factors in this wide-open category.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$101
End Date
Mar 14, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 5:09 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "The Odyssey" at 34%, followed by "The Black Ball" at 32%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 34¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 6, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner" is "The Odyssey" at 34%, meaning the market assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "The Black Ball" at 32%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.