With multiple films holding similar implied probabilities near 50% this early in the 2026 release cycle, Polymarket traders are pricing in substantial uncertainty for the 2027 Oscars Best Original Screenplay race. Wild Horse Nine leads at 35.5% on initial industry positioning, ahead of Obsession at 15% and Digger at 11%, while titles such as Fjord, Josephine, and The Drama sit lower. Absent any completed guild nominations, critics' awards, or major festival premieres to establish momentum, odds reflect preliminary assessments of script originality, filmmaker track records, and academy voting patterns rather than locked-in frontrunner status. Fall releases and early 2027 precursors remain the key swing factors that could consolidate or redistribute sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Winner
Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Winner
Wild Horse Nine 36%
Obsession 15%
Digger 11%
Fjord 9%
$11,190 Vol.
$11,190 Vol.
Mar 14, 2027
Wild Horse Nine
36%
Obsession
15%
Digger
11%
Fjord
9%
Josephine
6%
The Drama
6%
The Debut
5%
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
5%
The Invite
5%
The Black Ball
4%
A Place in Hell
4%
The Odyssey
3%
Club Kid
3%
Elsinore
2%
Fatherland
2%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
8%
Forgotten Island
1%
Wild Horse Nine 36%
Obsession 15%
Digger 11%
Fjord 9%
$11,190 Vol.
$11,190 Vol.
Mar 14, 2027
Wild Horse Nine
$9,859 Vol.
36%
Obsession
$124 Vol.
15%
Digger
$333 Vol.
11%
Fjord
$87 Vol.
9%
Josephine
$59 Vol.
6%
The Drama
$39 Vol.
6%
The Debut
$106 Vol.
5%
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
$59 Vol.
5%
The Invite
$39 Vol.
5%
The Black Ball
$97 Vol.
4%
A Place in Hell
$59 Vol.
4%
The Odyssey
$59 Vol.
3%
Club Kid
$43 Vol.
3%
Elsinore
$39 Vol.
2%
Fatherland
$39 Vol.
2%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
$106 Vol.
8%
Forgotten Island
$39 Vol.
1%
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.With multiple films holding similar implied probabilities near 50% this early in the 2026 release cycle, Polymarket traders are pricing in substantial uncertainty for the 2027 Oscars Best Original Screenplay race. Wild Horse Nine leads at 35.5% on initial industry positioning, ahead of Obsession at 15% and Digger at 11%, while titles such as Fjord, Josephine, and The Drama sit lower. Absent any completed guild nominations, critics' awards, or major festival premieres to establish momentum, odds reflect preliminary assessments of script originality, filmmaker track records, and academy voting patterns rather than locked-in frontrunner status. Fall releases and early 2027 precursors remain the key swing factors that could consolidate or redistribute sentiment.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 4:40 AM ET
Volume
$11,190End Date
Mar 14, 2027Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 4:40 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.With multiple films holding similar implied probabilities near 50% this early in the 2026 release cycle, Polymarket traders are pricing in substantial uncertainty for the 2027 Oscars Best Original Screenplay race. Wild Horse Nine leads at 35.5% on initial industry positioning, ahead of Obsession at 15% and Digger at 11%, while titles such as Fjord, Josephine, and The Drama sit lower. Absent any completed guild nominations, critics' awards, or major festival premieres to establish momentum, odds reflect preliminary assessments of script originality, filmmaker track records, and academy voting patterns rather than locked-in frontrunner status. Fall releases and early 2027 precursors remain the key swing factors that could consolidate or redistribute sentiment.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$11,190End Date
Mar 14, 2027Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 4:40 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...With multiple films holding similar implied probabilities near 50% this early in the 2026 release cycle, Polymarket traders are pricing in substantial uncertainty for the 2027 Oscars Best Original Screenplay race. Wild Horse Nine leads at 35.5% on initial industry positioning, ahead of Obsession at 15% and Digger at 11%, while titles such as Fjord, Josephine, and The Drama sit lower. Absent any completed guild nominations, critics' awards, or major festival premieres to establish momentum, odds reflect preliminary assessments of script originality, filmmaker track records, and academy voting patterns rather than locked-in frontrunner status. Fall releases and early 2027 precursors remain the key swing factors that could consolidate or redistribute sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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