Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Rafael López Aliaga as the Peru presidential election first-round frontrunner at 60% implied probability, driven by his lead in recent national polls amid surging public demand for tough-on-crime policies as insecurity rises in Lima and beyond. Roberto Sánchez Palomino (41.5%) and Jorge Nieto (41.0%) trail closely, buoyed by their military and economic credentials appealing to voters disillusioned with President Boluarte's 10% approval and ongoing protests. Fragmentation among two dozen candidates boosts the odds for these right-leaning figures, with Keiko Fujimori lagging at 12% despite name recognition. Congress rejected early elections in March 2024, keeping focus on the scheduled 2026 vote, though instability could prompt shifts; next polls due soon may recalibrate sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedJorge Nieto 82%
Wolfgang Grozo 54%
Alfonso López Chau 54%
Vladimir Cerrón 53%

Jorge Nieto
82%

Wolfgang Grozo
54%

Alfonso López Chau
54%

Vladimir Cerrón
53%

Carlos Espá
53%

Roberto Chiabra
53%

José Williams
53%

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
53%

Marisol Pérez Tello
53%

Mario Vizcarra
53%

César Acuña
53%

José Luna
53%

Enrique Valderrama
53%

Ricardo Belmont
53%

Mesías Guevara
53%

Carlos Álvarez
52%

Rafael López Aliaga
60%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino
39%

Yonhy Lescano
28%

Fiorella Molinelli
27%

Fernando Olivera
27%

Keiko Fujimori
12%

George Forsyth
10%
Jorge Nieto 82%
Wolfgang Grozo 54%
Alfonso López Chau 54%
Vladimir Cerrón 53%

Jorge Nieto
82%

Wolfgang Grozo
54%

Alfonso López Chau
54%

Vladimir Cerrón
53%

Carlos Espá
53%

Roberto Chiabra
53%

José Williams
53%

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
53%

Marisol Pérez Tello
53%

Mario Vizcarra
53%

César Acuña
53%

José Luna
53%

Enrique Valderrama
53%

Ricardo Belmont
53%

Mesías Guevara
53%

Carlos Álvarez
52%

Rafael López Aliaga
60%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino
39%

Yonhy Lescano
28%

Fiorella Molinelli
27%

Fernando Olivera
27%

Keiko Fujimori
12%

George Forsyth
10%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Rafael López Aliaga as the Peru presidential election first-round frontrunner at 60% implied probability, driven by his lead in recent national polls amid surging public demand for tough-on-crime policies as insecurity rises in Lima and beyond. Roberto Sánchez Palomino (41.5%) and Jorge Nieto (41.0%) trail closely, buoyed by their military and economic credentials appealing to voters disillusioned with President Boluarte's 10% approval and ongoing protests. Fragmentation among two dozen candidates boosts the odds for these right-leaning figures, with Keiko Fujimori lagging at 12% despite name recognition. Congress rejected early elections in March 2024, keeping focus on the scheduled 2026 vote, though instability could prompt shifts; next polls due soon may recalibrate sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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