The Santa Catarina Senate race for first place remains highly competitive ahead of the October 2026 vote, with Carol de Toni holding the highest market-implied probability at 34% amid a crowded field. Recent polls place her and fellow PL candidate Carlos Bolsonaro at the front, buoyed by party consolidation and endorsements within the Bolsonaro-aligned base, while names like Marcos Dorval, Lunelli, and Esperidião Amin trail with lower support. Multiple viable contenders and potential vote fragmentation within center-right and opposition blocs have kept probabilities clustered, limiting separation. Scheduled party conventions, further polling releases, and any late adjustments to alliances or candidate withdrawals before registration deadlines could shift momentum among the top tier.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSanta Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place
Santa Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place
Carol de Toni 34%
Jeferson da Rocha 18%
Lunelli 17%
Marlene Soccas 12%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Carol de Toni
34%
Jeferson da Rocha
18%
Lunelli
17%
Marlene Soccas
12%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado
11%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter
11%
Décio Lima
11%
Carlos Bolsonaro
9%
Joaninha de Oliveira
7%
Afrânio Boppré
8%
Carol
7%
Esperidião Amin
6%
Marcos Dorval
17%
Carol de Toni 34%
Jeferson da Rocha 18%
Lunelli 17%
Marlene Soccas 12%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Carol de Toni
$98 Vol.
34%
Jeferson da Rocha
$58 Vol.
18%
Lunelli
$98 Vol.
17%
Marlene Soccas
$58 Vol.
12%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado
$58 Vol.
11%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter
$58 Vol.
11%
Décio Lima
$74 Vol.
11%
Carlos Bolsonaro
$96 Vol.
9%
Joaninha de Oliveira
$104 Vol.
7%
Afrânio Boppré
$74 Vol.
8%
Carol
$58 Vol.
7%
Esperidião Amin
$58 Vol.
6%
Marcos Dorval
$58 Vol.
17%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Santa Catarina Senate race for first place remains highly competitive ahead of the October 2026 vote, with Carol de Toni holding the highest market-implied probability at 34% amid a crowded field. Recent polls place her and fellow PL candidate Carlos Bolsonaro at the front, buoyed by party consolidation and endorsements within the Bolsonaro-aligned base, while names like Marcos Dorval, Lunelli, and Esperidião Amin trail with lower support. Multiple viable contenders and potential vote fragmentation within center-right and opposition blocs have kept probabilities clustered, limiting separation. Scheduled party conventions, further polling releases, and any late adjustments to alliances or candidate withdrawals before registration deadlines could shift momentum among the top tier.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Volume
$946End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Santa Catarina Senate race for first place remains highly competitive ahead of the October 2026 vote, with Carol de Toni holding the highest market-implied probability at 34% amid a crowded field. Recent polls place her and fellow PL candidate Carlos Bolsonaro at the front, buoyed by party consolidation and endorsements within the Bolsonaro-aligned base, while names like Marcos Dorval, Lunelli, and Esperidião Amin trail with lower support. Multiple viable contenders and potential vote fragmentation within center-right and opposition blocs have kept probabilities clustered, limiting separation. Scheduled party conventions, further polling releases, and any late adjustments to alliances or candidate withdrawals before registration deadlines could shift momentum among the top tier.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$946End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Santa Catarina Senate race for first place remains highly competitive ahead of the October 2026 vote, with Carol de Toni holding the highest market-implied probability at 34% amid a crowded field. Recent polls place her and fellow PL candidate Carlos Bolsonaro at the front, buoyed by party consolidation and endorsements within the Bolsonaro-aligned base, while names like Marcos Dorval, Lunelli, and Esperidião Amin trail with lower support. Multiple viable contenders and potential vote fragmentation within center-right and opposition blocs have kept probabilities clustered, limiting separation. Scheduled party conventions, further polling releases, and any late adjustments to alliances or candidate withdrawals before registration deadlines could shift momentum among the top tier.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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