The S&P 500 settled at 6,782.81 on April 8, 2026—squarely in the 6700–6800 range with 100% market-implied probability—fueled by a 2.5% intraday surge amid a US-Iran two-week ceasefire announcement that plunged Brent crude below $93 from over $112 peaks. This relief rally reversed early-year declines tied to Middle East tensions, boosting tech, travel, and small-cap sectors while the index cleared its 50-day moving average near 6,771. Trader consensus, backed by real capital and verified S&P Dow Jones Indices data, reflects overwhelming certainty; rare challenges like official close revisions remain highly improbable post-settlement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated6700–6800 100.0%
<6600 <1%
6600–6700 <1%
6800–6900 <1%
$12,104 Vol.
$12,104 Vol.
<6600
<1%
6600–6700
<1%
6700–6800
100%
6800–6900
<1%
6900–7000
<1%
7000+
<1%
6700–6800 100.0%
<6600 <1%
6600–6700 <1%
6800–6900 <1%
$12,104 Vol.
$12,104 Vol.
<6600
<1%
6600–6700
<1%
6700–6800
100%
6800–6900
<1%
6900–7000
<1%
7000+
<1%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the April 8, 2026 trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Market Opened: Apr 7, 2026, 9:00 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the April 8, 2026 trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The S&P 500 settled at 6,782.81 on April 8, 2026—squarely in the 6700–6800 range with 100% market-implied probability—fueled by a 2.5% intraday surge amid a US-Iran two-week ceasefire announcement that plunged Brent crude below $93 from over $112 peaks. This relief rally reversed early-year declines tied to Middle East tensions, boosting tech, travel, and small-cap sectors while the index cleared its 50-day moving average near 6,771. Trader consensus, backed by real capital and verified S&P Dow Jones Indices data, reflects overwhelming certainty; rare challenges like official close revisions remain highly improbable post-settlement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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