The S&P 500 index opened at 6,754.36 on April 8, 2026—firmly within the 6700–6800 range—driving Polymarket's trader consensus to a 99.9% implied probability on that outcome, backed by real capital reflecting skin-in-the-game certainty from official exchange data. This positioning stems from a sharp 2.5% rally, with pre-market futures surging over 170 points after President Trump's announcement of a two-week Middle East ceasefire, easing oil prices below $93/barrel and igniting broad risk-on sentiment amid reopening Strait of Hormuz hopes. Prior close near 6,617 underscored the breakout. Resolution hinges on final verification, though challenges like rare data revisions remain negligible risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated6700–6800 100.0%
6600–6700 <1%
<6600 <1%
6800–6900 <1%
$51,646 Vol.
$51,646 Vol.
<6600
1%
6600–6700
1%
6700–6800
100%
6800–6900
1%
6900–7000
<1%
7000+
<1%
6700–6800 100.0%
6600–6700 <1%
<6600 <1%
6800–6900 <1%
$51,646 Vol.
$51,646 Vol.
<6600
1%
6600–6700
1%
6700–6800
100%
6800–6900
1%
6900–7000
<1%
7000+
<1%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the April 8, 2026 trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official opening price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official opening price is published for that session (for example, due to a delayed open, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the first valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective opening price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) “Open” prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under “Historical Prices.”
Market Opened: Apr 7, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the April 8, 2026 trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official opening price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official opening price is published for that session (for example, due to a delayed open, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the first valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective opening price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) “Open” prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under “Historical Prices.”
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The S&P 500 index opened at 6,754.36 on April 8, 2026—firmly within the 6700–6800 range—driving Polymarket's trader consensus to a 99.9% implied probability on that outcome, backed by real capital reflecting skin-in-the-game certainty from official exchange data. This positioning stems from a sharp 2.5% rally, with pre-market futures surging over 170 points after President Trump's announcement of a two-week Middle East ceasefire, easing oil prices below $93/barrel and igniting broad risk-on sentiment amid reopening Strait of Hormuz hopes. Prior close near 6,617 underscored the breakout. Resolution hinges on final verification, though challenges like rare data revisions remain negligible risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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