Trader consensus on a near-certain "Down" outcome reflects the Silver Bulletin approval rating's confirmed decline this week, as updated May 1 with the polling average dipping amid a wave of unfavorable late-April surveys including Pew Research (34% approve) and Reuters/Ipsos (34%). Surging gas prices from the ongoing U.S.-Iran war, coupled with voter concerns over the economy and no end in sight to military actions, have eroded support, pushing net approval to around -18 and marking a second-term low trajectory. Resolution hinges on the tracker's green trend line to one decimal place; only an unprecedented data revision or pollster correction could shift it, though none is anticipated before the weekly close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUp
$8,999 Vol.
$8,999 Vol.
May 1, 2026
Up
$8,999 Vol.
$8,999 Vol.
May 1, 2026
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on May 1, 2026, than on April 24, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 24, 2026, than on May 1, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on a near-certain "Down" outcome reflects the Silver Bulletin approval rating's confirmed decline this week, as updated May 1 with the polling average dipping amid a wave of unfavorable late-April surveys including Pew Research (34% approve) and Reuters/Ipsos (34%). Surging gas prices from the ongoing U.S.-Iran war, coupled with voter concerns over the economy and no end in sight to military actions, have eroded support, pushing net approval to around -18 and marking a second-term low trajectory. Resolution hinges on the tracker's green trend line to one decimal place; only an unprecedented data revision or pollster correction could shift it, though none is anticipated before the weekly close.
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on May 1, 2026, than on April 24, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 24, 2026, than on May 1, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 24, 2026, than on May 1, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Apr 24, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
Volume
$8,999End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 24, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Down
No dispute
Final outcome: Down
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on May 1, 2026, than on April 24, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 24, 2026, than on May 1, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on a near-certain "Down" outcome reflects the Silver Bulletin approval rating's confirmed decline this week, as updated May 1 with the polling average dipping amid a wave of unfavorable late-April surveys including Pew Research (34% approve) and Reuters/Ipsos (34%). Surging gas prices from the ongoing U.S.-Iran war, coupled with voter concerns over the economy and no end in sight to military actions, have eroded support, pushing net approval to around -18 and marking a second-term low trajectory. Resolution hinges on the tracker's green trend line to one decimal place; only an unprecedented data revision or pollster correction could shift it, though none is anticipated before the weekly close.
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on May 1, 2026, than on April 24, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 24, 2026, than on May 1, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 24, 2026, than on May 1, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$8,999End Date
May 1, 2026Market Opened
Apr 24, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Down
No dispute
Final outcome: Down
Trader consensus on a near-certain "Down" outcome reflects the Silver Bulletin approval rating's confirmed decline this week, as updated May 1 with the polling average dipping amid a wave of unfavorable late-April surveys including Pew Research (34% approve) and Reuters/Ipsos (34%). Surging gas prices from the ongoing U.S.-Iran war, coupled with voter concerns over the economy and no end in sight to military actions, have eroded support, pushing net approval to around -18 and marking a second-term low trajectory. Resolution hinges on the tracker's green trend line to one decimal place; only an unprecedented data revision or pollster correction could shift it, though none is anticipated before the weekly close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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